Putin threatens to “strike NATO airports if they are used by Ukrainian F-16s”

Further escalation of tensions between Russia and NATO, and especially the United States, is represented by the warning of the President of the Russian Federation V. Putin that “airports in third countries from which Ukrainian F-16 fighters will operate against Russian armed forces will be considered legitimate targets.”

What does he mean? Western militaries understand that the F-16 fighters they stationed in Ukraine could be destroyed on Ukrainian territory. Therefore, they will try to use airports in neighboring countries, that is, in the three Baltic republics (Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania), Finland, Poland, Romania or even Bulgaria, which may not have a land border with Russia, but does have a sea border, and Ukrainian F -16 can be perfectly used from Bulgarian bases for attacks on Crimea. It is no coincidence that according to the agreement concluded last week, the protection of Bulgarian airspace passed to the Turkish Air Force.

Thus, F-16 airfields in these NATO countries, according to Putin, may be subject to attack by Russian armed forces, because the the use of F-16s transferred to the Ukrainian Air Force will be a legal basis for striking these countries.

Of course, this could result in targeted NATO countries invoking Article 5 and their militaries taking retaliatory action against Russia. Then the latter will have to decide whether to accept these blows and what to do:

• Expand the conflict using conventional weapons.
• Use nuclear weapons.

In the first case, Russia will not be able to prevail over NATO, and this is obvious: if there is a certain balance of power on land, then at the air and naval level NATO’s superiority is complete. Therefore Russia will be forced use tactical nuclear weapons. And once they start using nuclear weapons, there is no guarantee that they will remain tactical rather than transition to strategic nuclear forces.

All this may seem like an exaggeration, but it is a matter of 24 hours before this happens, with Russia confident that, thanks to its vast territory, a significant part of its population will survive, like in the United States, unlike Europe, which will be completely destroyed. This is where we are heading if Vladimir Putin follows through on his threat.

What is the most likely scenario

1. The Russian president will not exercise his right to “legitimate defense” and will not carry out his threat, even if NATO airfields are used by Ukrainian F-16s.
2. F-16s are not so numerous as to have a decisive impact on the conflict, Russia will not lose the initiative on the Ukrainian battlefield if, in theory, several F-16s from Poland or Romania attack Russian targets.
3. There may be other actions, but things are unlikely to come to “extreme” situations.

Russia is winning, and it has no reason to escalate the conflict to the level of using nuclear weapons, but the Russian Federation also does not want to lose its military personnel and its military potential. It is easier for them to find and destroy old Ukrainian Su-24s, equipped with Storm Shadow and SCALP-EG missiles, and hitting important targets, in particular in Crimea, than to bomb a Polish base with F-16 aircraft…

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