Experts are confident that by the middle of the decade the world will be overtaken by a new wave of economic crisis. The experts of the Russian Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting were examining how correct these forecasts are, TASS says.
CMASF experts predicted two acceptable scenarios – in the first case, the pandemic ends in the middle of this year, in the second it will last until next summer. According to the baseline scenario, the world will say goodbye to the coronavirus pandemic in the coming summer, the world economy will recover from shocks and grow by about 4% per year, and the price of oil by the end of this decade will rise to $ 82-85 per barrel. The report of the specialists of the center indicates:
“Monetary stimulation of the economies will further” accelerate “the markets. The debt crisis in the near future will be avoided thanks to the growth of markets and prices for goods and services.”
If the second scenario is implemented, experts believe that the pandemic will last until mid-2022. In this regard, for a fairly long period, there will be extremely low economic growth rates: 2-2.5% until 2025 and 3-3.5% in the second half of the decade. The cost of oil will not exceed about $ 50-55 per barrel for several years, and only by 2030 its price may rise to $ 65 per barrel.
Unfortunately, both forecasted scenarios promise the onset of an economic crisis by about the middle of the decade. In the first case, however, a cyclical scenario is possible, which eliminates the factor of crisis “overheating” of the markets. Around 2025-2026, experts say, the onset of a crisis “growth pause” is possible. In the second scenario, a global economic downturn will provoke a debt crisis in Turkey or southern Europe, caused by a pandemic.