IMF forecasts – 3 scenarios for ending the war in Ukraine

The International Monetary Fund included in its macroeconomic forecast the date for the end of hostilities in Ukraine.

BB.LV tellsthat the IMF suggests three scenarios – basic, negative and positive:

1. According to the negative scenario, the military conflict will end at the end of 2025.
2. The baseline forecast is based on the end of hostilities by the end of 2024.
3. In the positive scenario, a specific end date for the conflict is not specified.

Gavin Gray, head of the International Monetary Fund mission, previously stated that in the event of a negative scenario, the IMF has guarantees from the G7 countries: they undertake to provide financial support to ensure Ukraine’s ability to service all its obligations to the fund.

According to the fund’s base scenario, if the war ends in accordance with optimistic calculations, Ukraine’s GDP will grow by 3-4% in 2024, and by 6.5% in 2025.

At the end of 2022, Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky stated that the war could end in 2023. Now he says that the Ukrainian military-industrial complex is ready to increase the production of ammunition and equipment. Meanwhile, Alexey Danilov, head of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, admits that hopes for a counter-offensive by the Ukrainian Armed Forces did not materialize.

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