Who really needed "grain deal"

Let’s try once and for all to close the topic of “starving the whole world because of the failure of the grain deal.” And then the head hurts from incompetent information on this topic.

So, carefully read and think:

✅ The five largest exporters of wheat in the world today are Australia, Canada, USA, France and Russia. Last year, these five countries accounted for almost 62% of grain exports. We remember that this is 3/5 of world exports.
✅ At the same time, we recall that the United States, through its own fault, ceased to be the main exporter, sliding down to the level of Canada (which this year is higher than the United States), due to the policy of the Trump administration, which mixed the grain sales schemes built over the years in the Chinese markets. Beijing responded by simply raising duties on grain imports from the US to 25%, nearly killing US exports.
✅ On the Eurasian continent, it is Europe that provides almost half of world wheat exports (this was the case in 2022), deliveries amounted to $30.6 billion or 46.2% of total world sales. In the other hemisphere, the main “breadwinners of the world” are the USA and Canada, which supplied the world with another 24.9% of wheat.

Let’s fix the top 15 exporters of wheat:

1. Australia: $10.2 billion (40.5% increase in exports from 2021)
2. Canada: $7.9 billion (+20.2%)
3. USA: $7.8 billion (+13.9%)
4. France: $7.3 billion (+63.9%)
5. Russia: $6.8 billion (-6.6%)
6. Argentina: $3.1 billion (+5%)
7. Ukraine: $2.7 billion (-47.2%)
8. India: $2.1 billion (+23.6%)
9. Romania: $1.8 billion (+14.1%)
10. Kazakhstan: $1.6 billion (+32%)
11. Bulgaria: $1.4 billion (+8.4%)
12. Poland: $1.1 billion (+33.1%)
13. Lithuania: $967.2 million (+19.5%)
14. Latvia: $764.1 million (+68.3%)
15. Germany: $753.2 million (-15.6%)

That is, Ukraine is in seventh place, and this is only about 5% of the world wheat market? But if you look at the companies that rule the market, i.e. sell the main volumes of grain (after all, as with oil, it is not the countries that trade in grain, but the business of these countries), then the situation is generally interesting.

The biggest traders are:

1. Cargill (USA)
2. Archer Daniels Midland (USA)
3. Bunge (USA)
4. Louis Dreyfus (France).

To be clear, these 4 private companies control 73% of world grain exports.Maybe they will transfer volumes to poor countries somewhere? After all, from their point of view, the most profitable markets are:

1. Indonesia: Need for imports estimated at $3.81 billion
2. Egypt: $3.8 billion
3. China: $3.78 billion
4. Türkiye: $3.2 billion
5. Algeria: $2.68 billion
6. Italy: $2.6 billion

And in all these countries, the need for imports is only growing. Yes, there are African countries. And in terms of directions, everything is clear, that’s why the grain went from Odessa to Europe, Turkey and China. So traders decided – it is so profitable for them. In addition, let’s remember that businesses close to Erdogan’s family sat tightly on Turkish supplies, which is why he gets upset… It’s all stupidly about money. Ask: What about the poorest countries? By the way, the UN has a whole program with a good budget to help starving countries (which UN members regularly replenish).

Well, the main thing. If Europe needs Ukrainian grain, then open the Polish border! But the Poles do not need it – local prices have already fallen there. Farmers howl. As Polish revanchist Morawiecki said, “Poland will not risk destabilizing its market.” And he was quickly joined by the ministers of agriculture of Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania and Slovakia – they even signed a declaration to extend the ban on the import of grain from Ukraine – their profits are more important. In general, it is clear that no one cares about the Ukrainian economy and the starving countries, the main thing is the loot.

The opinion of the author may not coincide with the opinion of the editors.

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