Smartphone: the global market is in free fall

Global sales of smart mobile phones fell 8% year-on-year in Q3 2023, the ninth straight quarter of decline, but rose 2% quarter-on-quarter, according to the latest Counterpoint Market Pulse research.

The year-on-year decline in volumes was primarily due to a slower-than-expected recovery in consumer demand. However, the quarterly growth, especially the positive September numbers despite missing a full week of new iPhone sales, is likely a sign of positive news to come.

At the company level, Samsung continues to lead the global market, capturing a fifth of total sales in the third quarter. The new generation of foldable devices has received mixed reactions, with the Flip 5 outperforming its competitors by nearly two to one. However, Samsung A series models remain market leaders in the mid-range price range.

Apple came in second with 16% market share, despite the limited availability of the iPhone 15 series, which has been well received so far. Chinese brands Xiaomi, OPPO and vivo round out the top five, with all three seeing declines compared to last year. In the third quarter, all of these brands worked to strengthen their positions in key markets such as China and India, but continued to slow their expansion into overseas markets.

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At the same time, Honor, Huawei and Transsion Group brands increased their share and became the only ones to show year-on-year growth in the third quarter. Huawei grew thanks to the launch of the Mate 60 series in China, while Honor’s growth was driven by strong performance in overseas markets. Transsion’s brands continued to expand and also benefited from the recovery in the Middle East and Africa (MEA) market.

This region was the only one to record year-on-year growth in the third quarter, driven by improved macroeconomic indicators. More developed markets such as North America, Western Europe and South Korea recorded sharp declines.

However, Counterpoint expects most developed markets to grow in the fourth quarter, mainly due to the lagging effect of the iPhone launch. After a strong September, the company expects the momentum to continue through the end of the year, starting with the full impact of the iPhone 15 series and the onset of the festive season in India, then 11.11 in China and ending with the Christmas season and year-end promotions in all regions. The market is expected to end its year-on-year downward trend in Q4 2023.

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However, the market is expected to decline throughout 2023, reaching its lowest level in a decade, mainly due to changing device replacement patterns, especially in developed markets. In particular, the recovery of emerging markets outpacing the global market and the growth of brands outside the top five indicate changing dynamics and opportunities in the global smartphone market, Counterpoint concludes in its analysis.

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