Air Force investigation: 33,236 Russian military personnel have been killed in Ukraine since February 2022

The number of dead Russians during the 19 months of the war is 33,236, a large-scale investigation has established using various open sources of information: posts by close relatives on social networks, messages from officials, publications in the media, data from cemeteries.

This is far from the full number of deaths – this does not include residents of the DPR/LPR. In addition, the investigators’ report contains only those whose names and surnames have been established, whose obituaries mention the relevant circumstances of death, or those whose dates of death coincide with the dates of the counter-offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The actual number of losses is definitely higher than the figures that will be given below.

The joint investigation involved the Air Force, a team of volunteers and the Mediazona publication (recognized as a “foreign agent” in Russia). During the study, it was possible to establish the names of 33,236 Russian military personnel killed in the war in Ukraine since February 2022. At least 2,448 of them were killed while repelling the counter-offensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. On website The BBC presents an interactive map with data on the dead as of September 29; the maximum number of military deaths from the region was named by the authorities and media of the Krasnodar Territory – 1259.

Losses during defense

In the first weeks of the counter-offensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces that began in June 2023, a significant increase in losses among Russian officers, especially senior officers, was noted. The trend continues today. During this period, Russia lost 234 officers, including 2 generals and 11 colonels (excluding 13 military pilots who died during the confrontation between the Russian army and the Wagner PMC at the end of June). Such significant losses were previously recorded only in the very first months of the invasion.

The trend demonstrates that the solution of critical tasks in the Russian army still requires “manual control” and the personal presence of senior officers on or near the front line.

According to the obituaries during this period, it is clear that the main burden in repelling the counter-offensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces fell on the mobilized and volunteers. A third of the dead were mobilized (681 out of 2,448 identified).

Prisoners brought to the front continue to play an important role. The detachments with their participation were withdrawn from the front line in June. However, those who left the colonies under the auspices of the Russian Ministry of Defense continue to actively participate in battles in the Zaporozhye and Donetsk regions. The names of 200 convicts who died over the past four months in the Zaporozhye, Kherson and Donetsk regions are known. But there is one “but”. As relatives say, the bodies of prisoners, for various reasons, are sometimes not taken out of the battlefield for a long time, and they are listed as missing for months.

Elite units of the Russian army also take part in repelling the counter-offensive of the Ukrainian military: marines, airborne forces, special forces. However, only in short operations, in the most important areas. The investigation found that during the counter-offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Russian paratroopers lost 209 soldiers, special forces of the Ministry of Defense – 23 people, marines – 60 people.

Total Russian losses

The total number of confirmed deaths on the Russian side to date is 33,236. This number includes employees of the Wagner PMC, but does not include those who fought on the side of Russia as part of units of the self-proclaimed DPR and LPR.

The groups of prisoners suffered the greatest losses. To date, the names of 6,215 convicts from Russian prisons who died on the territory of Ukraine are known. More than 100 of them are citizens of foreign countries, mainly Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan.

Most of the dead convicts fought as part of the Wagner PMC. Despite the fact that the Wagnerites have not participated in battles on Ukrainian territory since June, data on their losses continues to arrive – every week there are 50-100 names of those killed over the past year.

Data from open sources indicate the death of 3,826 mobilized Russians. Every fifth of them was at the front for less than two months, 60% died in the period from January 1, 2023. Actual casualties among those mobilized may be significantly higher, as many reports of soldiers since October 2022 do not indicate their status. Because of this, it is sometimes unclear whether a person served as a contract soldier, went to the front as a volunteer, or was mobilized.

Investigators suggest that their total list of losses may contain approximately half as many names of the dead as are actually buried in the Russian Federation. They came to this conclusion by systematically studying the situation in cemeteries in more than 70 Russian settlements over the past 15 months. According to the most conservative estimate, by the end of September 2023, Russia could have lost 66 thousand people dead.

Losses in the DPR and LPR

The total number of losses on the Russian side increases significantly if we include in the list of dead those who fought as part of the “people’s militias” of the self-proclaimed DPR and LPR. Starting from December 22, 2022, the DPR authorities stopped publishing data on the losses of their military personnel, and the LPR authorities did not publish information at all.

Having studied published obituaries and messages about the search for LDNR members who have not been in touch for a long time, investigators came to the conclusion that up to 20 thousand military “republics” of Donbass could have died by the end of September. Taking into account this indicator, the total losses of those fighting on the side of Russia in Ukraine may exceed 86,000 people killed.

The Russian Ministry of Defense last reported the total number of casualties on September 21, 2022, indicating 5,937 dead. Since then, the department has reported deaths three more times, confirming the loss of 162 people. In June 2023, it became known that the Ministry of Defense had asked the authorities of a number of regions not to publish obituaries of fallen soldiers. Representatives of Buryatia, Tuva and Khakassia, regions where there are especially many losses, are aware of such requests. According to several media reports, this is being done, among other things, to complicate our calculations, writes Air Force.

Losses of mobilized

How is the count of those killed in the war in Ukraine going?

Every day in Russia new names of the dead and photos from funerals are published. The names are given by representatives of regional administrations of Russian regions, relatives, local media, and educational institutions where the deceased previously studied. The BBC, Mediazone and a team of volunteers study the data and add it to a list that has been kept since the beginning of the war.

Confirmation of death is considered to be a publication in a Russian official source or media, posts by relatives on social networks or in other sources if they are accompanied by photographs of the burial. The main calculation does not take into account the losses of the LDNR. But if a citizen of the Russian Federation voluntarily went to war and joined the armies of these republics, the data is taken into account.

The branch of the military is determined by reports of where the deceased served or by insignia on the uniform. Mobilized, volunteers and prisoners are not separate branches of the military, however, investigators allocate these losses to a separate category in order to compare them with the losses of professional (contract) units of the regular army.

“Other troops” include air defense and chemical defense personnel, signalmen, doctors, ground services of the Aerospace Forces, the Ministry of Internal Affairs, automobile and railway troops and military police.

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