Metron Analysis pre-election poll: 7 points difference between ND and SYRIZA

The Metron poll is significant as the sample of 2105 people is the largest of any poll and is the first poll conducted since the debate.

It is characteristic that in just a week, according to the same company, again for Mega, the New Democracy in its intention to vote rose to 31.1%, increasing its percentage by 1.8 points (29.3% earlier).

SYRIZA also rose 1.1 points to 24.1% from 23%, but its 7-point difference from ND in terms of voting intent appears to be consolidating.

PASOK is stable but low at 8.9%, followed by CKE which rose from 6.6% to 5.5%. Below the parliamentary threshold is the “Greek Solution” (Ελληνική Λύση), which has lost a little more and gains 2.8% (from 2.6%).

MEPA 25 gains 0.1% to rise to 3.8% (from 3.7% in the previous tally), while Πλεύση Ελευθερίας Zoe Constantopoulou soared from 1.2% last week to 2.1%.

The National Creation (Εθνική Δημιουργία) received 1.1%, as did the “Νίκη” (Victory) party, which was first in the previous poll with 1%.

Undecided and others
An interesting result is the responses of those who say they will vote for another party. As we get closer to the election, they seem to have decided which one, so in one week their percentage dropped from 8.5% by half to 4.8%.

2.9% said they would not vote at all, and the number of undecided also fell to 9.4%. The total number of those who will not vote and those who have not decided is about 14%, which is significantly lower than in the previous poll, which was over 17%.

According to the vote count, “New Democracy” reached 36.2%, and “Syriza” – 28%, the difference is more than 8 points. PASOK rises to 10.3%, KKE to 7.4%, Hellenic Solution gets into parliament from 3.3%, MPRA 25 from 4.4%, Πλεύση Ελευθερίας fights for a seat in parliament from 2.5%, and National creation (Εθνική Δημιουργία) and “Νίκη” (Victory) – from 1.3%.

Another element showing New Democracy’s solid lead is the win rate. It is 70% versus 20% for SYRIZA and 2% for PASOK.

• The most suitable candidate for the post of prime minister is K. Mitsotakis with 37% and Alexis Tsipras with 22%.
• The most suitable political leader to guarantee the good functioning of democratic institutions is Mitsotakis with 32%, followed by Alexis Tsipras with 21%.
• 54% of citizens say they are very interested in the elections, 32% are quite interested, 8% are not very interested and only 6% are not interested at all.
• 93% of citizens say that they will definitely go to vote: “yes” (82%), “most likely yes” (11%), “most likely not” say 3% and “definitely not” also 3%.
• However, a wake-up call for the current government is the data that 57% of respondents want changes in the next elections, and only 39% want continuity.

An association

In the New Democracy (ND) party, unification is 71.1% compared to 70.9% in the previous dimension, with 10.7% moving away from SYRIZA (from 4.7%) and 5.2% moving in the opposite direction.

coalescence SYRIZA is low, so she can hope for a better result as we get closer to the election. It is only 62.1%. PASOK also has low coalescence – 56.9%, the majority of voters come from SYRIZA (6.6%) and 4.7% from ND.

In terms of the party background of undecided voters, we see that most of them represent ND (16%), followed by SYRIZA with 7%.

partnership or not

On the question of whether citizens want mono-party or coalition governments, opinions are divided. 50% are in favor of mono-party governments and 47% are for alliances. In terms of political affiliation, 76% of the center-right and 72% of the right “vote” for independence. Left or center-left are in favor of partnership – 65%.

Grade

The image of SYRIZA is bad in terms of evaluation.

• In particular, 73% of voters have a negative opinion about the work of the official opposition, and only 21% have a positive opinion.
• 38% have a positive opinion about the work of the government, while 54% have a negative opinion.

The areas in which the government excels and gets the best appreciation from citizens are foreign policy – 48%, state modernization – 42%, economic issues – 39%. Support for vulnerable social groups with 26% and the younger generation with 30% are “black holes” for ND.

SYRIZA is most trusted in supporting disadvantaged social groups with 25% and the younger generation with 23%, while it scores low in foreign policy with 15%, citizen security and state modernization with 18%.

Crash test politicians

Kyriakos Mitsotakis scored the highest for international authority with 54%, followed by better crisis handling ability with 44% and efficiency with 38%.

Alexis Tsipras is considered good in that he can guarantee the good functioning of democratic institutions – 21%, and that he cares about people’s problems – 20%.

Country Development Direction
54% believe the country is heading in the wrong direction and 39% in the right direction, with little change from the previous poll.

Punctuality is seen as the most important issue, but its value has risen to 33% from 27% a few days ago. It is followed by the economy at 27% (26%), unemployment at 7%, corruption at 4% and insecurity/inadequate government at 4%.