The countries of the North Atlantic Alliance are considering the idea of providing official Kyiv with Soviet MiG-29 fighters or American F-16s, Bloomberg reports.
The agency recalls that the Ukrainian authorities are asking to close the sky over the country, and also highly appreciates the likelihood of receiving the Iron Dome air defense system, the Patriot anti-aircraft missile system.
In July, a training program for Ukrainian pilots was confirmed that will accelerate the country’s transition to American F-16 fighters in the future, and in August details were revealed about the secret training of pilots to work with American A-10 attack aircraft. In early November, the British Royal Joint Institute for Defense Research named the Swedish Gripen light fighter as the most suitable candidate for equipping the Ukrainian Air Force, according to the Militarim publication.
MiG-29
The MiG-29 fighter was designed to gain air superiority, as well as to destroy small ground targets. The main modifications of the aircraft are MiG-29SMT, MiG-29UB and MiG-29K/KUB. These Soviet-built aircraft are highly regarded for their low maintenance requirements and ability to operate from short makeshift runways, as well as their exceptional maneuverability, making them ideal for short-range air defense missions. This increased the value of the MiGs compared to the heavier Su-27s and Su-24s, which are significantly more expensive to operate and are not in service with the allied states, and this implies difficulties in obtaining spare parts.
The problem with the MiG-29, like the rest of the Ukrainian Air Force’s active fighters, is their outdated weapons and avionics, which means they can’t seriously threaten much more modern Russian forces. Another hurdle is the use of mechanically scanned radars and semi-active, rather than active, radar-guided air-to-air missiles. Moreover, the problem will persist even if the new MiG-29s are delivered from NATO countries, for example, from Poland and Slovakia, which received them in the 1980s, when they were part of the Warsaw Pact under the leadership of the Soviet Union.
Perhaps the best option for Ukraine, which analysts discussed back in April, is for the West to put pressure on Egypt to sell its fleet of 46 MiG-29M fighters to Kyiv. This is the most combat-ready modification in the world, and the Egyptian fleet is also equipped with modern R-77-1 air-to-air missiles and Kh-35 cruise missiles, as well as other modern weapons and electronically scanned radars.
The Egyptian MiGs are better equipped than most of the Russian Air Force’s own fighters, while inheriting the low maintenance requirement and operability in the harsh environment of the original MiG-29. In addition, it will not be difficult for Ukrainian units to re-equip them.
Finally, it will avoid the risk that Russia will be able to explore the capabilities of NATO technology. At the same time, MiGs are much cheaper than Western aircraft with equally advanced radars and weapons. While the MiG-29M is perhaps the ideal option for the Ukrainian Air Force, it is unlikely that Egypt will agree to supply them, despite pressure from the West. Although the Egyptian government of Anwar Sadat illegally supplied modern Soviet fighter jets to the United States in the 1970s, the current administration has taken a much more neutral position in the conflict between Russia and the West and is unlikely to dare to destroy the growing security partnership with Moscow.
F-16
The F-16 is the most widely used fourth-generation fighter in the world. A fleet of more than 5,500 pieces forms the basis of the US Air Force and a number of naval aviation units. The aircraft was developed during the Cold War years as an inexpensive, easy to maintain and lighter counterpart to the high-end F-15. With a significant surplus of several hundred F-16s on the US Air Force’s balance sheet, the class has been cited as a leading candidate to equip the Ukrainian Air Force, though questions remain about the viability of such a transfer.
The F-16s, which are in storage and in active parts of NATO, use outdated mechanically scanned radars, which are much more vulnerable to interference, and which Soviet tactical aviation began to abandon as early as 1981. The non-modernized F-16s also lack the off-line guidance capability provided by the new AIM-9X air-to-air missile and helmet-mounted sights. Because of this, they will be at an extremely disadvantageous position not only in comparison with modern Russian fighters, but even in comparison with the current Ukrainian MiG-29 and Su-27, which at one time were the first in the world to receive such capabilities.
As a result, making the F-16 fit for combat in Ukraine will require significant investment either in building new units, which will cost far more than any class of Russian fighter, or upgrading old airframes to F-16V standard, with modern avionics and weaponry. At the same time, the delivery of upgraded F-16s is fraught with certain risks – including discrediting the class in the eyes of export customers if they suffer heavy losses, and compromising secret technologies (Russian forces will be able to study the aircraft in action). Finally, the F-16 is far less capable of operating in harsh environments than the MiG-29.
F-18/F-18E
The medium-heavy F-18 Hornet and F-18E/F Super Hornet have been repeatedly named as candidates for the formation of a new Ukrainian fighter fleet. The aircraft is more complex and more expensive to maintain than the F-16, although it is considered economical for its size.
While the F-18 and F-18E have a number of advantages over the F-16, including significantly longer range and a backup engine, they are not considered cost-effective and are likely to be less suitable for the Ukrainian theater of operations. These aircraft are considerably more expensive, have fewer parts available, and are much slower and less maneuverable than the F-16, not to mention the MiG-29, which calls into question their suitability to counter the Russian Air Force.
Gripen
The Swedish fighter Gripen belongs to the category of very light aircraft. It is even smaller than the F-16 and is rather comparable to the Chinese-Pakistani JF-17 or the Indian Tejas. The aircraft is valued for its extremely low operating costs and maintenance requirements, it is unpretentious with ground support equipment, and its design is optimized for operations from dispersed bases. The Gripen has been designed to operate in a manner similar to the MiG-29, one of the most maneuverable jet aircraft in the world. Among Western fighter classes, the Gripen is best suited for operation in harsh airfield conditions, with the exception of the new F-35B, developed for the US Marine Corps, which is currently considered the most expensive production fighter in the world.
The Gripen is much better suited to the current regime of operations in Ukraine than other Western fighters, and combined with its low cost appears to be potentially ideal. However, fighter availability remains a major problem: in the more than 30 years since first flight, fewer than 300 aircraft have been built, and no country has reserves comparable to the US F-16s and F-18s.
Most Gripen operators have taken a neutral stance on the ongoing conflict, with only Sweden and the Czech Republic strongly siding with Kyiv, as well as the UK, which operates a small number of training options. Like the F-16, the vast majority of Gripen use obsolete avionics and mechanically scanned radars, while the modern Gripen E/F variant is produced in extremely limited numbers. With the Gripen performing poorly in export markets in recent years and no new sales since 2014, the prospect that the Gripen, and especially the E/F modification, will suffer heavy losses in combat with the Russian Air Force will further reduce the aircraft’s appeal. This partly explains Sweden’s hesitation in supporting Kyiv.
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