Why did the Saudis agree to the US proposal?


We continue to analyze the situation regarding statements Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in the presence of Biden on the maximum sustainable oil production – no more than 13 million barrels per day.

Let’s start with the volumes of production, processing and export of Russian oil. In the profile Russian edition “Neftegaz.ru” provides information on production and a sharp increase in oil in Russia as of July 2022. It can be seen that the volume of production to date is just over 10 million barrels per day, plus up to 0.85 million barrels of gas condensate. Of these, 5.35 million barrels of oil and condensate are processed at domestic refineries.

The Interfax news agency published an article titled Conclusion of statistics on the total production and export of oil and oil products from Russia as of the end of June 2022. Here we see the total volume of exports of oil and oil products from Russia at the level of 7.4 million barrels per day, of which 2.4 million barrels are oil products and another 5 million barrels are oil itself. That is Of the approximately 11 million barrels of oil, 7.4 are generally exported and 3.6 are consumed domestically.

An increase in the volume of oil in Saudi Arabia by 3 million barrels per day and, accordingly, the likelihood of a drop in sales from Russia from 7.4 million to 4.4 million barrels per day.

Now to the words of the Saudis about increasing production and the reasons for such a decision. Let’s start with the fact that I read opinions about this – both that all this will be stretched out in time right up to 2027, and that this will be done as soon as possible. To try to understand the logic of the Saudis’ behavior, we need to look at what Biden promised them in exchange for an increase in oil production. Moreover, #Biden thanked the Saudis for the promise to increase oil production by 50% under the OPEC + agreement, and Mohammed bin Salman, in addition, promised to increase production from 10 to 13 million barrels of oil per day in the future.

As viewers have suggested to me, behind all sorts of ritual curtsy like a promise to maintain a US military presence in the region and a settlement on the murder of Washington Post columnist Khashoggi, there is a proposal that is really important for the Saudis. We are talking about the islands of Tirana. This is a disputed territory located at the entrance to the Gulf of Aqaba, in the north of which is the Israeli port city of Eilat. Until recently, these islands formally belonged to Egypt, but since 1967 they have been captured by Israel in order to ensure unhindered navigation from Eilat to the Red Sea. Since 1982, these islands have been effectively under the control of the United States.

In 2017, Egypt handed over these islands to Saudi Arabia, for which they are something like Crimea for Russia or Taiwan for China. But the problem was that the United States did not recognize all these transfers and the sovereignty of Egypt and Saudi Arabia over these islands, because of which the Saudis and the Egyptians could not build their “Crimean Bridge” through them, connecting Africa with the Middle East by a land corridor bypassing Israel.

Now let’s think with you, what was Russia ready to return “Crimea to its native harbor”, and what is China ready to “return Taiwan to its native harbor”? And here the Saudis have the opportunity to get the desired territory, and even without a single shot and conflict. In exchange, the United States only asked to increase oil production by 3 million barrels per day. Moreover, in this case, the United States pushed through Israel, which the new “Crimean Bridge” is clearly not comme il faut, as well as the loss of control over the islands important for their security.

You can, of course, continue to count on the fact that the Saudis will fool the stupid Americans and will not increase oil production, but to consider the enemy, which is the United States, as narrow-minded fools is not to respect yourself. I am sure that the Americans will not give the Tirana Islands to the Saudis without clear and precise guarantees of a rapid increase in the production of the oil they and their allies need.

This shift in the US position on this issue shows how seriously they take the war with Russia and what they are ready to go to win it. Treat this as a zrada and fall into depression is not worth it. This must be taken for granted, as the fact that the United States and the Collective West are going to win this war, and therefore, it is necessary to get together and start fighting with them with all their might, discarding any hope of an agreement. They were not going to and are not going to negotiate. The goal of the States is one: the colonization of the entire former USSR and its last remaining fragment in the form of the current Russian Federation. And until they receive a worthy rebuff, they will not give up their plans.

Meanwhile, in Egypt, the advertising of a new bridge across the Tiran Islands at the entrance to the Gulf of Aqaba, which should connect Egypt and Saudi Arabia by direct communication, has already begun to spin. Now the land route passes through Israel. The project is estimated at just over $1 billion and should be implemented within 7 years.

For project implementation The US must withdraw its troops from the territory of the islandsas Biden promised during his visit to Saudi Arabia.

Based publications lawyer Tatyana Montyan.



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