The International Monetary Fund predicts the beginning of the return of refugees to Ukraine as early as 2024 and makes a forecast about the population of Ukraine in the coming years. Rosstat estimates the population decline in the Russian Federation by 2045.
The population of Ukraine in 2024 is estimated at 33.4 million people. After security risks are reduced in 2025, IMF experts believe that approximately 400 thousand people will return to Ukraine. However, the process of returning refugees will be slow, the IMF World Economic Outlook report for April said.
According to the foundation's experts, the population of Ukraine in 2021 was 41.0 million people. In 2022 it decreased to 35.0 million people, in 2023 – to 33.2 million people. The IMF projects the following population numbers:
- 2024 – 33.4 million people
- 2025 – 34.3 million people
- 2026 – 35.1 million people
- 2027 – 35.8 million people
- 2028 – 36.0 million people
According to the UN Refugee Agency, as of March 14, 2024, 6.486 million refugees from Ukraine were recorded worldwide (5.983 million refugees in Europe and 0.503 million outside it). According to the NBU, in 2023 the number of refugees increased by approximately 200 thousand people. The agency predicts that in 2024, given the continued high security risks, the outflow of migrants is expected to continue, albeit insignificantly (about 100 thousand people at the end of the year). After security risks have been reduced, approximately 400 thousand people will return to Ukraine in 2025. According to the forecast of the director of the Institute of Demography and Social Research, Ella Libanova, in 10 years the population of Ukraine will range from 26 to 35 million people, reminds publication “Correspondent”.
The population of Russia by the end of 2045 is projected to decrease by almost 8 million. Rosstat expects a reduction in the population of the Russian Federation by the end of 2045 to 138.77 million people. As of January 1, 2023, 146.45 million people lived in Russia. This is stated in the new demographic forecast of the Russian Federation published in October 2023. The forecast was calculated taking into account the results of the All-Russian Population Census, which was conducted in October-November 2021.
In Rosstat notethat the demographic forecast was compiled without taking into account the population living in the occupied territories of Ukraine. According to the forecast, the population in the Russian Federation in 2024-2032 will decrease by more than 400 thousand people per year, including the natural population decline in these years will exceed 600 thousand people per year, and in some years even 700 thousand. Migration growth during the forecast period is estimated at 210-230 thousand people per year.
Starting in 2033, according to Rosstat's forecast, the population of the Russian Federation will decline at a rate of less than 400 thousand people per year (as a result of a slowdown in natural population decline), in 2042-2045 – less than 200 thousand.
According to Rosstat's forecast, the population of the Russian Federation will decrease to less than 145 million people in 2026, to less than 143 million people in 2030, to less than 140 million people in 2039.
More Stories
Georgia: Opposition leaders were brutally beaten by security forces (video)
Congressmen warn ICC about sanctions because of Netanyahu
From November 1st, an electronic conscription system will be launched in the Russian Federation.