The world’s population will decline for the first time in history since the bubonic plague pandemic in the mid-14th century, writes The Telegraph.
Global fertility rates have reached a historic turning point and are unlikely to recover, Lancet experts say. Because of this, in the coming decades there will be a decline in the world’s population, which now stands at just over 8 billion.
To maintain population growth, women must give birth to an average of 2.1 children each. In 2021, the global average was 2.23, but experts say it is on a steady downward trend and is projected to fall to 1.83 in 2050 and 1.59 by 2100. By 2100, the problem of population decline will affect countries where 97% of the world’s population lives. In just 26 countries, the birth rate will exceed the death rate.
At the same time, in developed countries the birth rate is already an order of magnitude lower than this indicator. In Britain, for example, in 2021 it was already 1.49. This has been driven by increased education and employment rates for women, the use of contraception and urbanization.
Experts said the impact of population decline on society would be “huge” as there would be more older people than younger people, increasing pressure on health services and the workforce. There may also be an increase in immigration from countries that are still experiencing a baby boom. And these are mainly African countries.
The plague epidemic 700 years ago, according to historians, claimed the lives of 50 million people, reducing the then human population from 400 to 350 million.
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