Life moves fast. Whether it’s the rise of armed conflict, the redrawing of the global energy map, or rapid advances in artificial intelligence, the world is changing at an unimaginable speed.
From the situation in the Middle East to the adoption of electric vehicles and the fight against obesity, everything looks very different than it did a year or two ago. The purpose of The Economist is to help us keep our… worldview up to date and warn us about what may happen in the future, at least that’s what the authors of this publication say. Here are ten topics to watch in 2024.
1. Repeated elections
Elections around the world for more voters than ever before will shed light on the global state of democracy. In 2024, there will be more than 70 elections in countries home to some 4.2 billion people – the first time more than half the world’s population will vote.
But while there will be more votes than ever before, there will not necessarily be more democracy: many elections will be neither free nor fair…
Vladimir Putin’s fate will depend more on American voters than on Russian ones. On March 17, 2024, Vladimir Putin will again become a candidate for the presidency of Russia
2. America’s Global Choice
Voters – and the courts – will give their verdict on Donald Trump, who has a chance to become president of the United States again. The outcome could depend on several tens of thousands of voters in a “handful” of swing states. But the consequences will be global, affecting everything from climate policy to military support for Ukraine. “Indeed, election fraud in Russia may mean that the fate of Vladimir Putin depends more on American voters than on Russians,” – notes the Economist.
3. Forward, Europe!
Europe must take action and provide Ukraine with the military and financial support needed for the long-term fight, while charting a path to membership in EU. This is what Kyiv considers necessary, as well as “insurance” against the risk that Trump will return to power and withdraw his support.
4. Unrest in the Middle East
The Hamas attack on Israel and the Israeli response in Gaza have roiled the region and upended the notion that the world could continue to ignore the plight of the Palestinians. Will this escalate into a wider regional conflict or provide a new opportunity for peace?
For America, “over-expanded superpower”it is also a test of whether she can adapt to a more complex and threatening world.
Western economies performed better than expected in 2023, but they are not out of the woods yet – keeping interest rates higher and longer will be painful for businesses and consumers, even if a recession is avoided.
The Palestinian drama will continue into 2024.
5. Multipolar “breakdown”
America’s plan to pivot to Asia and focus on competing with a rising China has been derailed by war in Ukraine and now Gaza. Russia is also distracted and losing influence. “Frozen” conflicts are thawing, and local cold wars are flaring up around the world. Instability in the Sahel is increasing. The world is preparing for new conflicts now that the American… “unipolar world” is over.
6. Second Cold War.
As China’s growth slows, tensions over Taiwan rise, and America continues to restrict the Chinese’s access to advanced technology, the rhetoric of a “new Cold War” is growing harsher. But for Western companies seeking to reduce their supply chains’ dependence on China, it will be much easier said than done… Meanwhile, both camps will attract the “middle powers” of the global South, and not just because of their “green” resources.
7. New energy geography
The clean energy transition is creating new green superpowers and redrawing the energy map. Lithium, copper and nickel have become much more important, while oil and gas, and the regions that dominate their supply, have become less important.
Competition for green resources is changing geopolitics and trade, and creating unexpected winners and losers. Meanwhile, a “green crisis” is brewing among voters who see climate policy as a plot by the elite against ordinary people.
8. Economic uncertainty
Western economies are doing better than expected in 2023, but they are not out of the woods yet, and keeping interest rates higher, for longer, will be painful for both businesses and consumers, even if a recession is avoided. Keep an eye on the banks and their commercial real estate investments, where things can go horribly wrong. As for China, it may fall into deflation.
Excitement and a lot of fears, “gifts” of artificial intelligence for 2024
9. AI becomes reality
Enterprises implement it, regulators regulate it, and technicians continue to improve it. The AI debate will intensify over the best approach to regulation, and whether arguments about “existential risk” are baiting incumbents. Unexpected uses and abuses will continue to emerge. There are concerns about the impact of AI on jobs and the possibility of interference in elections.
Biggest real impact? Faster coding.
10. Uniting the world
Perhaps ideological differences will be put aside as the world enjoys the Paris Olympics, astronauts (possibly) orbiting the moon and Euro 2024. But it is just as likely that those hoping for some kind of global unity will be taken aback…
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