Russia is fighting according to a plan developed until 2026

The Russian Federation has a plan to occupy Ukraine until 2026, reports the German publication Bild, citing sources and intelligence data.

Edition writes that Russia plans to occupy Ukrainian territory beyond the four already illegally annexed Ukrainian regions during 2024-2026. Bild states that the Russian Federation plans to capture the entire territory of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions, and up to the Oskol River in the Kharkov region, by the end of 2024.

ISW, in turn, notesthat these goals coincide with the current local offensive operations of the Russian Federation in the Donetsk, Lugansk and Kharkov regions.

Also, according to Bild, Russia plans to capture a significant part of the Zaporozhye, Dnepropetrovsk and Kharkov regions, including the city of Kharkov, in 2025 and 2026. Citing an insider source, Bild also states that Russia plans to occupy large parts of eastern Ukraine, located east of the Dnieper River, within the next 36 months.

According to available information, the publication notes, Russia plans to hold the current front line in the Kherson region along the Dnieper River and is concerned about preventing the advance of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in southern Ukraine towards Crimea.

Bild writes that Russia’s plans are based on the mobilization of the Russian defense industrial base, the annual loss of about 100,000 troops in grueling offensive operations, and the possible election of a new US president in 2024 who will either sharply reduce or completely end military support to Ukraine.

Citing a source familiar with the intelligence findings, Bild noted that the Kremlin plans to rely on “fictitious negotiations” while continuing to carry out offensive operations. Similar to how Russia negotiated the Minsk agreements in 2015 while the Russian military continued to occupy additional Ukrainian population centers.

The Institute for the Study of War notes that Bild previously published largely accurate intelligence data about Russia’s plans for a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in December 2021. The forecast at the time noted that Russia would attack Ukraine in the south from Crimea, from Russian-controlled territory in eastern Ukraine and from the north. The newspaper was only slightly off on the timing, predicting an attack in late January or early February 2022.

ISW noted that it could not independently verify the accuracy of Bild’s reports, but information about Russia’s plans for a war in Ukraine until 2026 is consistent with Russia’s preparations for prolonged military action. The Russian military command is undergoing long-term restructuring and expansion to form strategic reserves, and Russia is gradually mobilizing its armed forces to fight a long war.

Reports of Russia’s mid- to long-term plans to occupy territory outside the four illegally annexed territories are also plausible, military analysts say, given that Russian officials, including Russian President Vladimir Putin, have recently returned to expansionist rhetoric. and Russian troops continue offensive operations in order to expand their positions in the Kharkov region.

In addition, Russian officials have made statements indicating Russia’s intention to occupy and annex additional Ukrainian territory beyond the current front line.

ISW recently assessed that a sudden withdrawal of Western aid would likely sooner or later lead to the collapse of Ukraine’s ability to deter the Russian military. In such a scenario, Russian troops could advance to the western Ukrainian border.

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