Copernicus: Hottest October on record

Europe’s Copernicus system recorded its warmest October on record, continuing a “streak” of record high temperatures that has been recorded since June.

This new “record,” experts say, suggests that 2023 is “virtually certain” to be the warmest year yet, surpassing the previous annual record set in 2016.

“We can say with almost absolute certainty that 2023 will be the warmest year on record,” and “the sense of urgency to take ambitious climate action as COP28 approaches has never been stronger,” said the deputy director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service ( C3S) Samantha Burgess.

Last month, the average temperature on the Earth’s surface reached 15.38°C, exceeding the previous monthly record (October 2019) by 0.4 degrees. This made it the second highest temperature record recorded to date, with the only month to exceed it being September 2023.

The average October temperature was “1.7°C warmer than any October in the period 1850-1900” – the pre-industrial period before the onset of the anthropogenic greenhouse effect, the observatory adds.

As of January, the average temperature is the highest ever recorded for the first ten months of any year and is 1.43°C higher than the period 1850-1900.

More than ever, 2023 is approaching the milestone (+1.5°C) set by the Paris Agreement. It is expected that COP28 will take stock of the implementation of the agreement and, if possible, take the first corrective measures. The World Meteorological Organization estimated in the spring that for the first time in the next five years, this limit will be exceeded for twelve consecutive months.

However, in order to conclude that the climate change threshold has been exceeded, the increase in temperature must be recorded for several years. In turn, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (GIEC), the probability that this will happen in 2030-2035 is 50%.

This conclusion follows from the rate of greenhouse gas emissions, mainly due to the burning of fossil fuels.

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