"We need to restore faith in hell to those who have lost it"

Russian political scientist Sergei Karaganov, who is the honorary head of the presidium of the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy of the Russian Federation, today again called for a nuclear war if the West does not stop supplying weapons to Ukraine. Or, at a minimum, to the threat of a nuclear strike.

In his opinion, humanity is now, through the war in Ukraine, moving towards a third world war and a global catastrophe, as the West is leading matters to escalation, supplying Ukraine with ever new types of weapons.

Therefore, according to Karaganov’s logic, the only thing that can stop further escalation is a threat from Russia to use nuclear weapons against Western countries.

“Recovery, if and when it happens, will be beyond the horizon and, most likely, only after catharsis. I don’t see yet the possibility of achieving this without awakening in the West and in the world elites in general a sense of self-preservation – except through an increase in the nuclear threat. I hope , without implementing it to the end. But the enemy must know about the unconditional readiness of our leadership and society to take this step in case of emergency. We need to return faith in hell to those who have lost it,” Karaganov wrote in his article, excerpts from which are published by the Russian government news agency RIA Novosti.

Fear of nuclear war will ‘contain the spread of conflict’

“The emergence of new sources of friction and conflict is inevitable. It is necessary now to put a political and psychological barrier on the way of their escalation to the military level, to restore the fear of nuclear war, which saved the world during the period of intense rivalry during the Cold War. The structure of rivalry in a multipolar world, and it will and nuclear-multipolar, it will be much more difficult. It is necessary to insert fuses into these systems now. And the main thing is the fear of nuclear Armageddon that restrains and civilizes the elites,” writes Karaganov.

At the same time, he notes that “if nuclear weapons have to be used (God forbid!), the strike must be quite massive.” “If nuclear weapons are used on a minimal scale and with a yield of several kilotons, then the war can be won, but the horror of them that has maintained relative peace for three quarters of a century will be destroyed. Nuclear weapons will become “usable.” Their use in Europe, given its still key role in the global media agenda, would restore such fear. But, I repeat: God forbid,” writes Karaganov.

Let us note that he has previously repeatedly spoken out in favor of Russia’s use of nuclear weapons. At the same time, a group of members of the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy of the Russian Federation, of which Karaganov is the honorary chairman of the presidium, condemned his ideas. It is unlikely that this opinion of Karaganov is only his personal initiative, judging by how actively it is quoted by the Russian state media.

It can also be noted that Karaganov’s call came against the backdrop of a number of successful strikes by Ukraine with Western weapons on Russian military targets. Including the headquarters of the Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol (after which, by the way, there were already calls from Moscow to threaten war with the West). In addition, the United States is now “on the table” to transfer ATACMS long-range surface-to-surface missiles to Ukraine. After which the Germans will most likely hand over their Taurus missiles.

And Karaganov’s previous statement on the same topic was at the end of June – after the United States agreed to future supplies of F-16 fighters to Ukraine. That is, it is possible that Moscow is trying to intimidate NATO in this way, hinting that this could lead to a nuclear war.

And moreover, through the threat of nuclear war (a new “Cubicle crisis”), Russia may try to achieve more global goals – to force the West to negotiate with the Russian Federation on a new “security system in Europe.” Including through ending the war in Ukraine on Russian terms (or on the terms of a broad compromise with the Russian Federation).

The question is whether Western countries will take such threats seriously, and if they do, what their reaction will be: to reach an agreement with Moscow or, conversely, to prepare for the Third World War, at the same time trying to induce China to put pressure on Russia. And how ready will the Russian elite be to implement threats if the West refuses to compromise?

Who is Sergei Karaganov? And why is his article even worthy of attention?
You may remember Doctor of Historical Sciences and political scientist Sergei Karaganov from the project “Namedni. Our era” by journalist Leonid Parfenov. He commented on Soviet political history – and did it in a completely liberal manner. Back in 2011, Karaganov, for example, preached “decommunization” and “de-Stalinization.”

A lot has changed since then. Now Sergei Karaganov is one of the founders of the Russian Council on Foreign and Defense Policy (SVOP). This is an expert center with which former military personnel, diplomats, current politicians, researchers and journalists collaborate. In 2004, SVOP became one of the founders of the Valdai Club, in whose meetings Putin regularly participates. Karaganov himself, of course, also attends these meetings. The club’s meetings are moderated by his colleague in the SWOP, international journalist and political scientist Fyodor Lukyanov. He also heads the magazine “Russia in Global Affairs”, and Karaganov heads the editorial board of the publication.

Karaganov has another high regalia – scientific director of the Faculty of World Economy and World Politics at the Higher School of Economics. But the most important thing is that he is a member of the scientific council under the Security Council of the Russian Federation, which, against the backdrop of the invasion, has apparently become the key authority in Russia. Media sources call Karaganov a person who “can influence the opinion of Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev.” And he, in turn, is believed to be part of Putin’s close circle.

Dmitry Kiselev threatened on live television to turn the United States into “radioactive ashes” even before the annexation of Crimea

And recently Dmitry Medvedev frightened the West with a nuclear strike. Do the words of political scientist Karaganov really mean more? In a sense, yes. Dmitry Kiselev in the mid-2010s was the main propagandist of the Russian government. In this capacity, he theatrically and, apparently, quite consciously shocked his liberal-minded fellow citizens – making speeches that had no consequences. Medvedev is doing approximately the same thing (despite his previous and current high status), who insults Western politicians and residents of other countries in his Telegram channel.

In the case of Kiselev and Medvedev, threats with nuclear weapons are perceived among other equally harsh statements. Unlike them, Karaganov always behaved with restraint. Moreover, his article was reprinted in the magazine “Russia in Global Affairs”: this media was once launched on the model of a Western analytical publication with the participation of the American magazine Foreign Affairs and until recently was considered serious and respected. Even after February 24, the journal was not excluded from international databases of scientific publications (for example, Scopus), that is, publishing there, including for foreign scientists, is still acceptable and even, theoretically, prestigious.

Karaganov’s article can probably be perceived as a personal initiative, an attempt to send a signal to the country’s top leadership and offer his radical version of a way out of the crisis in which Russia found itself due to the war against Ukraine. On the other hand, given Karaganov’s closeness to the Security Council of the Russian Federation and his personal participation in the Valdai organization, this text may well convey the opinion widespread in the security – the most influential – bloc of the Russian government.

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