The first conclusions from what happened in Kazakhstan are made by the famous blogger from Russia, the Voice of Mordor, who lives in the Netherlands. His opinion may not coincide with the opinion of the editorial board, but it makes us look a little differently at the events that shook the country.
It will take a long time to discuss what happened in Kazakhstan. There is still shooting, although it is believed that the attempted rebellion ended in failure and was brutally suppressed. There is no general picture yet, but most of its fragments are present, and the first conclusions can already be analyzed. In order to avoid the repetition of similar events.
It is already clear that the main purpose of the protests was the desire to plunge the country into the abyss of civil war. Not a seizure of power, not a confrontation between oligarchs or ruling elites, but a civil war, a total destabilization of a huge state located between Russia and China. And if you look at who is the main geopolitical opponent of these two countries, then everything immediately becomes clear about the beneficiary of the bloody events in the cities of Kazakhstan. True, the plan was a success only at the initial stage.
It is also obvious that the events that took place were being prepared for a long time, with the participation of traitors from the ruling elites and special services. Protests over the rise in gas prices are just a pretext, a trigger. Any such event could be used instead. And if it did not happen, then those who planned everything could go to the provocation.
The transition from spontaneous popular discontent to the start of a well-organized armed struggle took place in a surprisingly smooth manner. Here’s how to read. The armed groups clearly knew what to do and how to do it. The seizure of government buildings and the blocking of columns with the security forces took place very competently. And besides, ambushes were professionally organized, arranged for the security forces, which, moreover, were raised too late. Late, because no one expected clashes with automatic firearms. The authorities of the country were confident to the last that the forces of the ordinary police and the national guard would be enough to confront the protesters and restore order.
President of Kazakhstan Kassym-Zhomart Tokayev noted that the number of militants is approximately 20 thousand people. Perhaps this is an exaggeration, but the number of people with weapons on the streets of Almaty was actually large. In principle, not all militants had to be prepared in advance, only the core had to be such. And the cannon fodder seemed to be drawn from the most aggressive protesters, who were simply handed weapons and orders.
The Kazakhstani “color revolution” turned out to be very strange. On the one hand, there is a complete absence of any protest leaders and organizations, and on the other hand, there is a fairly professional military action in urban conditions. It is unlikely that there can be any logical explanation for such a paradox, other than what I wrote above. Everything was planned in advance, the preparation of people was actively going on. The authors of the plan probably hoped that the armed insurrection would receive the support of the townspeople, but they miscalculated. Even many of the protesters fled to their homes when they saw what it all poured out. And the overwhelming majority of the inhabitants stayed at home at all. By the way, these protests were initially not very massive.
Many were horrified by the destruction of a beautiful modern city. Looting, looting, destruction of infrastructure – there is absolutely nothing to do with the “bright ideals of the revolution.”
It is now clear that the Kazakhstani authorities would have quite coped with the rebels and terrorists without outside help. The request to bring the CSTO contingent into the country was a kind of guarantee and preventive measure – in case events develop according to the worst scenario. After all, the possibility of an invasion of militants from the mountainous regions of neighboring countries, where there are probably secret bases for the training of radicals, was not ruled out. There were enough similar bases on the territory of Kazakhstan, it is not a fact that all of them were discovered as a result of the failure of the rebellion.
Main inference from past events – no one is immune from such a scenario. For a long time Kazakhstan has been one of the most stable and calm countries of the post-Soviet space, with a balanced foreign policy, which, with good relations with Russia, made it possible to have excellent relations with the West. But, as it turned out, such a policy does not guarantee that the country will be left alone. Moreover, if it is so well geographically located, which allows you to plunge into complete chaos an already not very calm region.