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Summer 2024 in Europe will be one of the hottest in recent years, according to the forecast of the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF).
Extreme temperatures in summer will be almost 2.5 degrees higher than the climate value for the period 1993-2016. It should be noted that this is also the first time that none of the available forecast scenarios for May show negative temperature anomalies for the whole of Europe.
The graph below shows past forecasts for each month of May from 2017 to present for the summer months (June-July-August), the gray bars show the uncertainty in deviations from the 1993-2016 climate value (already a very warm period), and the gray circles show the extreme predicted values of all available scenarios.
The red “X” dots show actual temperatures observed after the end of the forecast periods, and it is noted that the warmest summer was recorded in 2022, very close to one of the forecast extremes in May 2022.
Overall, we can say that the ECMWF model so far very accurately predicts the overall course of temperatures in Europe in the summer, and slightly underestimates the actual values.
For 2024, the blue bar on the right of the graph shows that one of the warmest years in recent memory is projected, with 17% of scenarios showing extreme high values and an average value close to +0.6°C above the climate value, which is the highest predicted value at the moment. The most extreme value of the predicted deviation is close to +2.5ºC.
In fact, for the first time, none of the available forecast scenarios for May this year shows negative temperature deviations for the whole of Europe. The hottest summer in recent years was in 2022 and was very close to one of the extreme forecast values for May 2022.
Sources: ECMWF, meteo.gr,
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