"Inflated hopes and delay in the onset" – what to expect on the battlefield in Ukraine

About the spring-summer offensive of the Russian Federation and the wave of fears in the West – how the difficult situation at the front will develop according to experts.

Those who didn’t make it were late: apparently, this saying is perfectly suited to the emerging situation at the front on the eve of the widely publicized spring-summer offensive of the Russian Federation. In a recent interview with the BBC, the head of the Main Intelligence Directorate, Kirill Budanov, confirmed that in mid-May-early June the situation on the battlefield for Ukraine could worsen. But, he noted, there are reasons for optimism.

Some experts believe writes publication “Correspondent” that Russia was too late in its offensive. There has recently been a wave of fears in the Western media that Ukraine may lose the war this year. The appearance of such information at first glance is logical: indeed, in the absence of American military assistance for several months, Ukrainian troops, under pressure from the Russian occupiers, had to slowly retreat. There was a second reason – the adoption by the US Congress of a bill to provide Ukraine with $61 billion in military aid was constantly “looming” somewhere on the horizon, and journalists dramatized the facts, pushing congressmen to the only correct decision in this situation.

Will Russia's widely announced spring-summer offensive now take place? Can it be successful? In an interview with the BBC, the head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense Budanov of Ukraine noted:

“We are facing a rather difficult situation in the near future, in our assessment. But it is not catastrophic, this must also be understood. Armageddon will not happen, as many are now starting to say. But there will be problems from mid-May. The Russians are carrying out a complex operation. We will not It will take a long time to talk to you about this, but this will be a difficult period. Mid-May, early June.”

According to Budanov, the Russians will use a comprehensive approach to put pressure on Ukraine. However, he noted that rumors about a possible second enemy attack on Kyiv are completely unfounded. He touched upon another important topic in the interview:

“Not being able to win on the battlefield, the Russians continue to promote the Maidan-3 operation in Ukraine, aimed at destabilizing the situation inside the country. They clearly understand that purely pro-Russian forces will not be able to function now. Therefore, they camouflage this under various types of activities, under various issues of social tension. And it will not look (and this is clearly described in their plans), it should not look like some kind of pro-Russian position.”

The head of the Center for Military Legal Studies, military and political expert Alexander Musienko, who after the positive vote of the US House of Representatives for assistance to Ukraine, agreed with Budanov’s opinion about the difficult situation for Ukraine in May:

“Now the enemy is really intensifying his offensive from the Belgorod region to the Kharkov region and in the east. And we will need to go through this period while the United States supplies us with weapons. They are really stepping up a little earlier, realizing that Ukraine will receive support. Therefore, the situation at the front will be difficult. But in the end, I believe that because of the help of the United States and Western partners, a trap will await the Russian Federation “like plywood over Paris.”

According to political adviser Alexander Kharebin, on the important issue of the enemy’s spring counter-offensive, not everything is so simple. He said, commenting on the anticipation of the announced US assistance:

“I want to remind you that almost 40 years ago, on August 11, 1984, President Reagan was warming up his language apparatus before the radio broadcast. He did not know that the microphone was on, and said: “My fellow Americans! I am pleased to inform you today that I have signed a decree outlawing Russia forever. The bombing will begin in five minutes.” This is a historical fact, you can Google it.”

The expert noted that “reagonomics” is now coming to the forefront of public perception both in the United States and around the world, and will influence (is already influencing) the behavior of the contender for the post of US President Donald Trump. The bicameral support of Congress speaks volumes about this:

“But the issue of bipartisan support for Ukraine in Washington is a miracle that happened before our eyes.”

He acknowledges that the US delay in providing assistance led to heavy losses for Ukraine. But he believes that the supply of support now is still timely and fair, because the Ukrainian Armed Forces did not allow the enemy to break through the front, showing their ability to resist Russia. In addition, during the period of lack of arms supplies, “sleeping” Europe also woke up, began to build up its own military potential and help our country more:

“Now the discussion that Europe is in a pre-war state no longer causes rejection. It is part of the Western European consensus and narrative. And for Ukraine this is the most favorable scenario; we really feel not alone.”

This, the expert believes, is the key to Russia’s future failures in the war with Ukraine in general and the failure of the spring-summer offensive in particular. However, he noted that in any case it is not worth treating American assistance as a panacea for all problems:

“We understand that for Ukraine this is definitely not a victory in the war. This is, let’s say, a relief, and very limited in time. How we can use these weapons, as well as the Western European and American consensus, is a question for our army, the president, to the cabinet of ministers, to our people. But the fact that without this support Ukraine could really begin to catastrophically lose in this war is clear.”

According to him, the situation in winter-spring 2024 resembles the period of winter-spring 2022:

“Nobody believed that Ukraine would hold out in 2022. Western aid was limited to javelins, manuals and instructions on how to fight a guerrilla war. Now, in 2024, the American and European press were inundated with predictions of how the front would fall, how the country would be forced to march for negotiations, how we don’t have enough of everything, and how bad everything is.”

But none of this worked out. And now the Ukrainian ability to resist has received a new impetus, a second wind:

“Ukraine has this support precisely because it has held out for these six months, has not retreated, and has demonstrated that it is capable of defending its territory, its borders and its values. I think by the beginning of the widely publicized Russian offensive, by the time sociology was formed before the November elections (in USA) the Republican majority in the House of Representatives and the Republican minority in the Senate will be interested in not stopping aid to Ukraine… Haley's electorate (Nicky Haley, Trump's fellow party member and competitor) has not gone away, and it still migrated more towards Biden for the elections.”

Therefore, the expert predicts, Russia is at the same point where Ukraine was a year ago – these are inflated hopes and a delay in the offensive, because the West has woken up:

“Russia was late in its offensive. For the Russian Federation, the adoption of the aid package by Congress and the unity that the West is now beginning to demonstrate means only one thing: it was late.”

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