An interesting opinion of analysts from NATO countries regarding possible scenarios and options for ending the Ukrainian conflict.
There are basically three main scenarios:
Scenario 1: “Russia loses, Ukraine wins”. He unrealistic, this is just a speculative option, because no major nuclear power can lose a war. If such a power risks losing, it will make maximum use of nuclear weapons, finally destroying all of humanity, which V. Putin clearly voiced at one time, saying: “We, like martyrs, will go to heaven. And they will die.”
Scenario 2: “Eternal War”. A long-term frozen conflict based on the current territorial configuration. This scenario is possible, but based on all available data and my own assessment, such an outcome seems extremely unlikely. Below are the key arguments.
The Ukrainian Armed Forces have lost so many personnel, equipment and weapons that they cannot maintain the necessary military potential compared to the Russian Armed Forces. The only possible option would be large-scale military and financial foreign assistance from the US, NATO and EU. We are talking about at least financial assistance in the amount of 100–150 billion US dollars, as well as such a large number of weapons and ammunition that simply do not exist anywhere in the world. It will take at least 5-6 years to create and expand such production capacities, but we still have to live through the next 5 years before that. Moreover, the Armed Forces of Ukraine must annually hire about 70–100 thousand foreign mercenaries around the world, which is quite possible, but what will they do without heavy weapons?
Scenario 3: “Ukraine loses, Russia wins.” This scenario seems highly likely, but there are some options depending on NATO's actual involvement. Below are Key characteristics of the third scenario.
In addition to increasing assistance, NATO is sending a large number of European ground forces to Ukraine, incl. combat units.
BIG QUESTION: whether Euro-NATO can deploy a military force of more than 50,000. If Euro-NATO is able to field a 50,000-strong military, the next big question is where its weapons, especially ammunition and equipment, will be located, and how long they will last.
NATO's deployment will be somewhat “limited” in the sense that both the number of combat troops and the amount of ammunition and weapons will not reach the “level of great powers.” Russia can focus on their destruction, and such a deployment of NATO forces only delays the final outcome of the war. Russia wins by making maximum use of conventional weapons, hybrid weapons and striking many countries, and in the end this will look like “Option 2”.
Eventually NATO and the EU will suffer terrible political and military losses and disintegrate, and a completely new concept of European security will emerge. Moreover, China has promised strong military support to Russia if NATO launches a direct offensive operation against the Russian Federation, in addition, the contributions of Iran and North Korea should also be taken into account. The new world order will be formulated by a new power duo – Russia and China, together with the BRICS bloc, and the United States with its allies.
In any case this means obvious escalation of war. Russia will carry out a major mobilization, calling up at least 500,000 more troops and transferring the entire Russian state is in war mode. Russia could also hit targets in countries other than Ukraine. And also hire mercenaries from the countries of the Middle and Far East. Without a doubt, North Korea, Iran, and other countries will happily provide their military to fight the “hated enemy.”
Scenario 4: In addition to a significant increase in assistance, NATO is sending large numbers of American, Canadian and European ground troops, incl. combat units to Ukraine. In this case, they will have to face a united front Russia, China, Iran, North Korea and several other countries. THIS MEANS THE COUNTDOWN TO WORLD WAR THIRD WITH NUCLEAR WEAPONS.
This is the end of the story.
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