Surprise survey: Germans do not consider Russia a “threat”

Caricature on the theme “Russian threat” of the 18th century

The report, prepared ahead of the Munich Security Conference, shows that concerns about the threat posed by Moscow are waning across the G7 countries. The same thing happens with the Germans.

Russia has shown no signs of ending the war in Ukraine two years after a full-scale invasion, but the Germans now see issues such as immigration and the threat from radical Islam as more pressing than the Kremlin’s threat.

That’s according to a new survey released Monday ahead of the Munich Security Conference, a meeting of top political and defense officials that begins in Germany on Friday. If in last year’s Munich Security Index report Russia was considered number one threat to Germanyshe has now dropped to seventh place.

A similar pattern is repeated in the G7 group of countries – the threat from Russia was named top in surveys conducted at the end of 2022 for the Munich Security Index for 2023, but a year later it dropped to fourth place in the overall list.

The findings come at a critical moment in the war, as Ukraine seeks European support as the United States’ commitment to the war effort weakens due to ongoing Republican opposition in the US Congress.

Earlier this month, the European Union agreed on an aid package for Kyiv in the amount of 50 billion eurosbut there are already signs that this is not enough, as Ukraine’s financial needs are growing every day.

The poll suggests the German public is less concerned about the Russian threat than before, a sign of changing priorities in Europe as the war enters its third year. The theme of the war in Ukraine is expected to dominate this year’s Munich Security Conference. Although it has not been confirmed, Zelensky himself is expected to speak at the conference – two years after he flew to Munich to make a desperate plea for international help just days before Russia’s full-scale invasion began.

The Munich 2024 Security Index also shows how the war in Ukraine competes with other geopolitical threats and priorities. Concerns about mass migration and radical Islamic terrorism now top the list of threats in Germany, a shift from the previous year.

The threat posed by radical Islamic terrorism rose to second place, up from 16th last year. Mass migration due to war or climate change, which was in second place last year, now ranks first. The report’s authors attribute these trends to the Hamas attack on Israel, noting that the survey was conducted in October and November last year.

“As in many other countries, the Hamas terrorist attack on October 7 appears to have sparked a surge in German concern about radical Islamic terrorism. – the report notes. – Germany now has the highest level of concern about immigration of any country surveyed.”

The study, which surveyed 12,000 people last fall, also paints a grim picture of the mindset of many of the world’s richest countries. Most people in G7 countries believe their countries will be less safe and wealthy in 10 years, a report says. However, the prospects of the so-called BRICS countries – Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa – are assessed more positively by the population.

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