How will real incomes of Greeks change in 2024?

Nearly seven out of ten expert members of the Greek Group of Economists are optimistic that the average real income of Greeks will increase in 2024 if the economic policy plan for the new year reflected in the budget is implemented.

Although the growth prospects for the national economy in the new year are positive, inflation and rising prices are affecting the real incomes of citizens.

The main condition for a significant improvement in the economic situation is nominal income growth that exceeds the “cost of living” indicator. This is an important political task both in our country and in Europe as a whole.

Thus, 69% of experts (out of a group of 19 leading specialists) expect an increase in average real income in our country in 2024, and 16% have the opposite opinion. The rest are balancing between “yes” and no.”

In your comments, which are fully available on the website Center for Liberal Studies (kefim.org), members of the Greek group of economists note, first of all, the uncertainty that prevails in the international economic and political environment.

It is emphasized that any assessments are formulated on the condition that no sharp external shocks recur this year, as happened in previous years. Moreover, among other things, two wars are currently being fought in the immediate vicinity of Greece.

Experts say that GDP will grow significantly in 2024, but only in capital-intensive industries, so a significant part of the increase will return to capital. This condition, in combination with observed increase in tax collection, allows us to conclude that real disposable income will increase, although it is still extremely difficult to estimate by how much.

Also of particular interest is the expert commentary that the condition for increasing average real income is productivity growthwhich in turn, requires investment and digital transformation, which is expected to increase in 2024 with the help of the Recovery Fund EU.

The Greek economy continues to be heavily dependent on international tourism, while labor productivity remains low compared to other European countriesdespite the fact – Greek men and women seem to work more than other Europeans.

Workers in Greece, Poland and Russia work the most hours per year, according to economists Robert C. Feenstra and Robert Inklaar. Spain is in the middle. The average of 1,686 hours of work per year corresponds to the UK, slightly more than France (1,505) and Germany (1,386), and less than Italy (1,718 hours) or Portugal (1,865).

Greece has the highest average working hours, followed by Poland and Russia, with 2,023 and 1,965 hours respectively.

The Greek Economists Group is an initiative of the Center for Liberal Studies, which aims to record and highlight the opinions of leading Greek experts on critical economic policy issues.

The group includes 75 economists from 59 universities and institutes from 11 countries. A detailed list of participants, their answers to monthly questions and explanatory comments, as well as answers to frequently asked questions can be found on the website of the Center for Humanitarian Research kefim.org.

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