ISW about downed aircraft and damage to the command post

The Institute for the Study of War analyzed the Russian version of the downing of the A-50 and Il-22.

Ukraine has officially stated that Ukrainian forces destroyed a Russian A-50 early warning aircraft and seriously damaged an Il-22 air command post aircraft on the night of January 14. Valeriy Zaluzhny, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, confirmed:

“Warriors of the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine destroyed an enemy A-50 long-range radar detection aircraft and an Il-22 enemy air control center.”

He published video footage of flights indicating that an A-50 and Il-22 were struck over the Sea of ​​Azov.

Залужний підтвердив, що повітряні сили ЗСУ збили російський літак дальнього радіолокаційного виявлення А-50 та повітряний пункт управління Іл-22М. Відео з Telegram Залужного pic.twitter.com/ewGdOr4v8r

— Українська правда ✌️ (@ukrpravda_news) January 15, 2024

Leading researcher at the Ukrainian State Aviation Museum of the National Aviation University Valery Romanenko said that the loss of the A-50 and its crew members is “very painful” for the Russian Federation, since a significant part of the A-50 crew is highly specialized and must undergo many years of training. The Southern Operational Command of the Ukrainian Armed Forces stated that before this strike, only three A-50s out of six that the Russian Federation has in total were available for use in Russia.

The Russian information space, they note ISW specialists, largely denied that Ukrainian forces had shot down an A-50, but “bizarrely” claimed the plane was destroyed by “friendly fire” from Russian air defenses.

Analysts indicate that the A-50 is used to coordinate Russian aviation and possibly air defense, and the claim that Russian air defenses shot down the A-50 would be a catastrophic failure on the part of Russian forces if it were true.

A Russian publication source that specializes in aviation blamed Russian commanders for not having the proper experience required for their positions. The report notes that the current commander of the Russian Aerospace Forces, Colonel General Viktor Afzalov, has extensive experience in Russian air defense.

Experts say that regardless of whether his lack of pilot experience poses any problems for Russian air operations, which is in doubt, his experience as an air defense would have to be adequate to prevent Russian forces from shooting down their own air control aircraft. .

A Russian insider source claims that unidentified Russian actors created a “canard” (Russian term for a false claim) about how Russian forces shot down the A-50 in order to reassure Russian pilots that flights over the Black and Azov Seas were safe and the cause of the incident was human. error. The review notes:

“It’s unclear why Russian pilots should feel any more comfortable with the idea that their ground-based air defenses are so incompetent.”

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that he had no information about the downed plane and recommended that the media check the information with the Russian Ministry of Defense. Analysts say:

“At the time of publication of this information, the Russian Ministry of Defense had not made an official statement regarding the incident.”

About how and what the planes were shot down, ponders D.W. The Ukrainian Armed Forces do not report how exactly and with what means the A-50 and Il-22M were attacked. Kiev aviation expert, employee of the National Aviation University Valery Romanenko, in an interview with DW, noted that these most likely could have been Patriot air defense systems made in the USA. According to him, Kyiv has no other weapons with similar characteristics. Based on the announced location of the defeat – over the Sea of ​​Azov off the coast of the occupied part of Ukraine – only Patriot missiles are suitable. The range of some of their modifications is 160 km.

If this is so, then this means that the Ukrainian Armed Forces took a risky step by moving expensive and powerful Patriot air defense systems close to the front line. Kyiv has several such systems, including those received from Germany. Until now, these complexes have been used to protect large cities from Russian missiles. According to the Ukrainian side, it is Patriots that are shot down by modern Russian supersonic Kinzhal missiles. “Placing Patriot so close to the front line is more than a risky operation,” Oleg Katkov, editor-in-chief of Defense Express, told DW. He recalled that several Russian combat aircraft and helicopters were also shot down in the Bryansk region on the border with Ukraine in May 2023.

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