Pearl Harbor for Israel

Already now you can observe many “far-reaching” conclusions that, as a result of what happened in Israel, we will see a new chapter of modern war, and so on, so on. These deep conclusions are made on the basis of several videos of civilian UAVs, Palestinian motorcycle raids, and so on.

Such conclusions, to put it mildly, can hardly be called at least correct – they lose sight of the full picture of what is happening, if not completely ignore it.

It’s worth starting with the fact that the Palestinian units are not a bunch of funny guys from the street who run around with Chinese AKs, defeating the regular army through copters from AliExpress and religious pumping. Behind the people in the footage is a huge body of work by skilled and sophisticated military specialists from Iran who spent many years collecting and analyzing intelligence, developing plans, preparing military assets and many other aspects that made this a reality. You see only that part of the picture that you are allowed to see and are deeply mistaken about the real state of affairs.

You look at the militia, but you don’t see the Iranian commando teams operating undercover, which made it possible to capture the Israeli special forces general. You look at the drone drops, but you don’t see the launch of thousands of missiles that have scattered the attention of the IDF command. You see paragliders, but you don’t notice Iranian aerial and radio intelligence, which helps direct Palestinian troops to the most vulnerable areas of Israeli security forces’ defenses.

One should not be mistaken in thinking that modern technologies are capable of radically changing the capabilities of irregular forces. This only becomes possible if there is a fundamental change in their organizational approach and strategy – which is exactly what we are seeing in what is happening today.

It is not the drones with grenades that deserve admiration here, but the Iranian military analysts – they organized a magnificent raid through the territory of one of the most militarized countries in the world with the help of a rebel organization, wisely using surprise, speed and panic as a cover for their actions. Palestinian troops have been in close contact with Israeli security forces for many hours, preventing the IDF from realizing its full superiority in firepower, and the capture of numerous hostages paralyzes the Israeli Air Force, which cannot carry out strikes on Gaza with full force.

The meaning of this raid is extremely simple, and it is not about “terrorism.” This is just an excellent way to obtain a huge amount of intelligence about Israeli response protocols, the speed of mobilization, the actual readiness of the army and intelligence structures. And of course, one should not think that General Nimrod Aloni, shown to the public, was the only valuable captive for today – Ashkelon and Sderot are rather large cities, and they are home to many interesting personalities that are interesting to Iranian intelligence (and not only, perhaps, Iranian intelligence).

Don’t be mistaken – Palestinians have no chance of winning. But the lesson of this day is that with good organization, planning and analysis, even Hamas can become a formidable weapon and deliver a powerful blow to a technologically and quantitatively superior enemy.

Pearl Harbor for Israel by V.K.

1. Not yet Armageddon. This is a superbly prepared sabotage raid with long-term prospects. They counted him for a long time. The morphology of this mass of Palestinians is of three types: slippers with machine guns, inside them are people who know exactly what to do and how to do it, i.e. special forces units that went to addresses, worked to detain officers, and carried out assault operations. These are highly professional people. Parallel to this train walked an unarmed crowd, which served as reinforcement detachments – they continued the pogroms. Considering how hostages were taken, there were intelligence officers in the crowd who led the groups.

2. The planning of the operation must be given due credit:
a) overloaded Israeli air defense with thousands of missiles;
b) crushed the electronic warfare capabilities of Israeli communications. Electronic warfare has not worked properly against Israel for 30 years!
c) broke into the bases. A naval base, two infantry division bases, and the base of the 143rd division (the so-called “Gaza Division”), which provided force support for all cleansing operations, raids, and seizures in the sector, were captured (according to Israel). For twelve hours the base was at the mercy of the Palestinians. A large amount of information was seized: codes, ciphers, entry points of the DRGs, their evacuation, support protocols – fire and physical – ciphers, communications.
d) landing on the water was organized in parallel;
e) Arab riots began in Jerusalem itself.

3. The Arabs entered like a knife into butter, capturing up to 10% of Israel’s territory.

4. A brilliant sabotage operation. No matter how monstrous it may sound, non-combatant hostages were taken out en masse for cover and exchange of prisoners. For Israel, this is Pearl Harbor. Israel, which existed up to this point, has ceased to exist because Israel will be reviewing all defense protocols anew. This is a monstrous failure of intelligence and counterintelligence.

5. This is a special operation. If there had been an army, perhaps they would have been able to reach further into Israeli territory. If an IDF ground operation begins, the Israelis must predict whether this is what the enemy was trying to achieve: to draw the Jews into ground operations to strike from all sides. This also cannot be discarded. At least part of the Islamic world, having become radicalized, can actively support the Palestinians.

6. The Arabs themselves, on command, left the objects captured during the sabotage raid, leaving reinforcement groups (see above) of civilians with bricks and clubs. The pros left, taking intelligence information and hostages.

7. Media effect. They recorded professionally made videos immediately, within the first 3-4 hours of the start of the operation. The information part is strong, and the Muslim world is greedy for this “tik-tok” and “Allahu Akbar”. Everything plays into this.

8. The Israeli army is the strongest in the region. The defeat of the Merkav by drones was not expected. 2 tanks were destroyed, 5 were captured. Light and heavy armored personnel carriers and equipment were captured.

9. The behavior of the IDF during the cleansing operations shows an inability to behave in an urban environment. Almost like the Russian army on New Year’s Eve 1995 in Grozny. I’m surprised by what I see. Very strange footage. I don’t understand Israel’s readiness. They constantly work in urban environments. And here the actions are confused, crowded, uncollected – I am in amazement.

10. Hamas acted according to the textbook, using an irregular (actually guerrilla) army: Special Forces groups were dissolved in a crowd of civilians armed with machine guns, controlling it.

11. Most of the hostages are taken at bases and in bomb shelters due to the fact that in Israel there is an alert system when people who do not have a personal bomb shelter must go to a public one. Addresses of bomb shelters are broadcast on mobile phones. The Arabs knew where to go and where to take hostages.

12. The operation was calculated thoroughly. The Arabs understood how the guards of the Jews were changing, how to extinguish the surveillance systems behind the wall. Enormous preliminary analytical work, preparation of an assault, a raid. How this passed the eyes and ears of the Israeli intelligence services is beyond comprehension.

13. The next day will show. It is impossible to say that the Jews completely drove the militants out of the territory; fighting is ongoing. The ground operation will begin when they have cleared their own cities.

14. The Palestinians act competently, leaving the reinforcement groups “with batons.” Filtering them will take Israel time. 3-4-6-12 hours allowed the Special Forces groups to leave with hostages, intelligence information, and prepare for a ground operation.

15. Israel promises to leave Gaza in ruins in the literal sense of the word. But even ruins need to be cleaned up. What will the Israeli army assault teams encounter in Gaza? However, Israel can use military gases. But many people won’t understand this. Even after ideological pumping.

16. In just one day, more than 7 thousand rockets were fired at Israel. They are released in batches, at least 150 at a time. Gaza prepared for war.

17. Israel threatens retaliation against Iran, but what if Iran responds with missiles? What if Syria, Lebanon, and Palestine fit in?

18. In any case, this is not good for Ukraine. We understand that the entire “civilized” world will rush to help Israel, and after 1.5 years of war, many countries have completely run out of ammunition. We don’t know what will happen to refugees, aid to Ukraine and Israel. The consequences will be unpredictable if a “fine line” breaks out in the area of ​​Korea and Taiwan, if Azerbaijan tries to take “Zangezur” from Yerevan, which has surrendered.

The opinion of the author may not reflect the opinion of the editors.

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