New poll: three parties on the verge of 3%. This factor can change a lot.

A new poll taken shortly before the election shows that New Democracy has a large lead over SYRIZA, and that it will be the first is already a matter of course.

However, this poll also shows that we can have a parliament with five or even eight parties. The reason is that three parties have just over 3% and a lot can change, and after Ilias Kasidiaris’ public endorsement of the Spartans, we may see another party gain momentum to enter parliament.

According to a survey conducted by Alco for ALPHA between June 6 and 10 on a nationwide sample of 1200 people, taking into account the June 25, 2023 elections, the difference between New Democracy and SYRIZA is 21.7%.

Parties have the following percentages of voting intentions among actual voters:

• ND 39.9%
• SYRIZA 18.2%
• PASOK 10.8%
• KKE 6.1%
• Freedom Course (Zoe Konstatnopulu) 4.4%
• NIKI 3.4%
• Greek solution 3.3%
• Measure25 1.7%
• Other parties 4.9%

We see that the Course of Freedom will enter the parliament despite the internal problems created by the numerous departures from Z. Constantopoulou’s party, because although many voters have become disillusioned with SYRIZA, there is not such a split among the electorate of the left that exists among the right.

In contrast, things are much more complicated on the right wing, as the Spartans party, which is backed by Ilias Casidiaris, has not yet appeared in the polls, but there are major signs that it may qualify for parliament. Kasidiaris is a point of reference for former Golden Dawn voters and the Greek party, which was expelled by the Supreme Court. In any case, these parties will cut off up to 0.5% (maybe more) from other right-wing parties, such as, for example, the “Greek Solution” by K. Velopoulos.

Therefore, the polls believe that it will be difficult for Velopoulos to get into the next parliament, despite the 4.45% he received in the first elections on May 21. Also, “Spartans” may get a lot of votes from “Nika”, since some people who voted for her and were voters of the “Greeks” party will now vote for “Spartans”.

All this shifting political climate on the right shows that small parties will be the ultimate regulators of elections. If the 3 right-wing parties – “Greek Solution”, “Niki”, “Spartans” – can get into parliament, they will create a difficult climate for the ND.

How many people “change” parties

According to the results of the poll, one in ten who voted for SYRIZA on May 21 goes to PASOK and the Freedom Course, and MePA25 bears the biggest losses – 32% of voters said they would vote for another party on June 25.

More:

• ND: 1.5%.
• SYRIZA: 9%.
• PASOK: 9%.
• KKE: 12%.
• Greek solution: 24%
• NIKI: 7%
• Freedom Course: 17%
• MePA25: 32%

How those who said they were undecided voted in May:

• ND: 14%
• SYRIZA: 6%.
• PASOK: 7%.
• Freedom Course: 7%
• MePA25: 7%

Will you vote in the June 25th election to confirm or change the May 21st election?

• Yes, I confirm my choice: 64%.
• Change my choice: 24%.
• I don’t know/undecided: 12%.

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