The Guardian: Russia was preparing for the Ukrainian Armed Forces operation in the Kursk region

The Russian military command assumed that the Ukrainian Armed Forces could launch an operation in Kursk region and developed plans to prevent it.

About this writes The Guardian, having become familiar with documents seized by Ukrainian military personnel from positions abandoned by the Russians in this region. The publication reports that its journalists met with the Ukrainian special forces who captured them at the end of August. Among them were documents from the Ministry of Internal Affairs, the FSB, and the army. The journalists not only looked through them, but also photographed them.

The Guardian is unable to independently verify their authenticity, but stresses that “they bear the hallmarks of genuine Russian military communications.”

The documents contain months of warnings about a possible Ukrainian offensive and show concerns about the morale of the Russian military. Some of them are printed orders sent to various units, others are handwritten journals recording events and problems at specific positions. The earliest records date back to late 2023, the most recent documents – six weeks before the Ukrainian offensive on the Kursk region on August 6.

The documents mainly relate to units of the 488th Guards Motor Rifle Regiment of the Russian Armed Forces, in particular the second company of its 17th Battalion. The Guardian writes:

“Ukraine's advance into Kursk took Kyiv's Western partners and many in the Ukrainian elite by surprise, since the operation was planned by a small number of people. But Russian military documents contain months of warnings about a possible invasion of the area and an attempt to seize Sudzha, a town of 5,000 that has been under Ukrainian control for more than a month.”

The “possibility of a breakthrough on the state border” by Ukrainian armed forces was already mentioned in a report from January 4. At the same time, Russian troops were ordered to intensify their exercises in preparation for repelling any attack.

February 19 Commanders of Russian units were warned about Ukraine's plans for a “rapid breakthrough from the Sumy region deep into Russian territory to a depth of up to 80 km, with the goal of creating a four-day “corridor” until the arrival of the main units of the Ukrainian army in armored vehicles.”

In mid-March Russian border troops have been ordered to strengthen their defences and “organise additional training” in preparation for a cross-border attack from Ukraine. The Guardian reports:

“In the middle of June there was a more specific warning of Ukrainian plans “in the direction of Yunakovka-Sudzha, with the aim of taking control of Sudzha,” which indeed happened in August. It also envisaged that Ukraine would attempt to destroy the bridge over the Seim River in order to cut off Russian supply lines in the region, which it did. The June document lamented that Russian units deployed to the front “are on average only 60-70% staffed and consist mainly of poorly trained reservists.”

The publication reminds: On August 6, the Ukrainian troops began an offensive, and many Russian soldiers abandoned their positions. Within a week, Ukraine had completely taken control of Sudzha. Also, during the chaotic retreat of the Russians, Ukrainian troops captured hundreds of soldiers, many of whom were conscripts.

The Guardian writes that The documents obtained provide insight into Russian tactics over the past year. One of the orders called for the creation of trenches and positions with mock tanks and soldier dummies to confuse Ukrainian reconnaissance drones. It also stated that several soldiers should be sent to these positions to light fires at night, carry torches, and move the dummies from time to time. In addition, the Russians were to create radio transmissions about these positions in order to intercept them.

The publication stresses that it is not yet clear whether such positions were ever created. Operators of Ukrainian reconnaissance drones that were operating in the area told the Guardian that they had seen no evidence of such positions.

In March, Russian documents reported that there had been an increase in cases of Ukrainian sabotage groups disguising themselves for work behind Russian lines by wearing Russian uniforms. To prevent this, Russian commanders were required to introduce certain “Option 6” identification marks in their troops, which were to be attached with transparent tape.

These documents also show serious problems with the morale of Russians at the front. In particular, they mention suicides of Russian soldiers. In addition, it follows from them that commanders of Russian units received instructions to ensure that soldiers watch Russian state media daily to maintain their “psychological state.”

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