What’s happening in Avdiivka: the situation is difficult, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are leaving (video)

The commander of the Ukrainian group of troops “Tavria” Alexander Tarnavsky called the situation in Avdiivka difficult, but controllable. Fierce fighting is taking place within the city. Zelensky promises the necessary support.

Against the backdrop of fierce fighting for Avdiivka in the Donetsk region, writes dw, Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky on the evening of February 15 promised all necessary support to the Ukrainian military on the eastern front. “We are doing our best to ensure that our soldiers retain sufficient managerial and technological strength to save more Ukrainian lives,” the head of the Ukrainian state said in a traditional evening video message on Thursday, February 15.

Zelensky said that he met with the newly appointed new commander in chief Ukrainian Armed Forces Alexander Syrsky and Defense Minister Rustem Umerov, who reported on the results of their trip to positions in the eastern direction of defense against Russian aggression.

That same evening, the commander of the Tavria operational-strategic group of troops, Alexander Tarnavsky, called the situation in Avdeevka “complicated, but controllable.” According to him, additional ammunition resources have been allocated and new positions have been prepared. At the same time, fierce battles are taking place within the city, Ukrainian troops “are using all available forces and means to contain the enemy,” Tarnavsky wrote in Telegram.

Coordinator for Strategic Communications at the US National Security Council John Kirby said at a briefing at the White House that the US Congress should approve new supplies of military aid to Ukraine as soon as possible. According to him, fighting on the eastern front has reached extremely high intensity, and the situation in Avdiivka is close to critical.

The city could be occupied by Russian troops because “Ukrainian troops are running out of artillery ammunition,” Kirby said, calling the price “huge” for Congress’ inaction in refusing to approve a $60 billion aid package for Ukraine. What is happening now in Avdeevka could be repeated on another sector of the front, a White House spokesman warned.

The American edition of The Washington Post reports that the Ukrainian Armed Forces have begun a partial withdrawal of their units from Avdiivka, and the last line of Ukrainian defense will most likely be the coke plant, which has suffered significant destruction. According to WP sources, the loss of Avdiivka is “a matter of time.”

The main supply line for the Ukrainian Armed Forces group defending Avdiivka runs near the coke plant. It was also reported that the Ukrainian forces had prepared a reserve logistics artery to supply troops in case the main one was cut, as stated by Dmitry Likhovoy, a representative of the OSGV Tavria.

To reinforce the units defending Avdeevka, the 3rd separate assault brigade, created on the basis of the Azov regiment, was transferred there. In a message on the Telegram channel of the 3rd brigade, published On February 15, it is said: “The situation in the city at the time of the establishment of the brigade is extremely critical.” The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces reported that the Russian army “is not abandoning attempts to encircle Avdiivka”; 34 Russian attacks have been repelled over the past 24 hours. Today, February 16, the Russian military used phosphorus in Avdeevka. About it reported press officer of the 3rd Special Brigade Alexander Borodin:

“The enemy is starting to use phosphorus. The use of KABs has increased. KABs are much worse than artillery. These are 250 kg and half-ton aerial bombs. This is 50 or more aerial bombs per day. There are a very large number of them for such a small bridgehead that is held “. And now phosphorus is being used. There was news about this within 24 hours. This continues. The intensity is only growing.”

The third assault team added on social networks that the occupiers are using phosphorus shells, which cause fuel tanks to catch fire. Smog spreads across the territory of the coke plant:

“The occupiers use phosphorus shells, which cause fuel oil tanks to ignite. Toxic smog spreads throughout the entire territory of the (coke-chemical) plant. As of now, this is the new “home” of the Third Assault Brigade. Doesn’t it remind you of anything? But our units continue to adequately resist the enemy , lead the defense and inflict record losses on the enemy.”

The Ukrainian OSINT project DeepState, which collects and analyzes information from open sources, reported that units of the Russian Armed Forces are advancing in the northern and southern directions of Avdiivka. According to pro-Russian “military correspondents” and Telegram channels, Russian troops seized the main entrance to Avdiivka, and Ukrainian units lost control over some positions in the city. However, according to all available data, the encirclement of Avdeevka by Russian units did not occur. Russian troops launched an offensive on Avdeevka in October 2023, with high casualties reported on their part. It was reported that the aim of the ongoing attacks the city is, among other things, a complete seizure of the Donetsk region, which could become a “gift to Putin” by the time of the presidential elections in the Russian Federation.

Experts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) analyzed actions of the Russian military making a tactical turn through Avdievka, highlighting their inability to conduct a successful operational envelopment or encirclement. Experts note that a tactical turn could create conditions that would force the Defense Forces to abandon their positions in a populated area.

Ukrainian troops have not yet completely withdrawn from the populated area and continue to prevent Russian troops from achieving more significant gains than the current gradual advance of the occupiers.

The ISW report said geolocation footage released on February 15 indicated that Russian forces had recently advanced to the southern outskirts of the Avdeevka coking plant in northwest Avdeevka. In addition, additional geolocation footage indicates that Russian forces have captured a Ukrainian fortified position south of Avdiivka, which has long been a Russian sub-tactical target, and Russian military bloggers have stated that Russian forces have effectively encircled positions adjacent to Avdiivka south of it. .

Recent geolocation data suggests that Russian troops have cut the last road in Avdeevka, which connected the southern and northern parts of Avdeevka, but a spokesman for the Ukrainian Tauride Group of Forces, Dmitry Likhovoy, said that Ukrainian troops are now using prepared secondary land lines to supply Ukrainian forces in the south and east parts of Avdeevka.

Russian bloggers claim that the invaders have made further advances west of Avdiivka, attempting to cut the dirt roads used by Ukrainian troops to supply positions in Avdiivka from Lastochkino and Severny (both west of Avdiivka), although ISW has yet to see any evidence of this Russian advance troops. Likhovoy acknowledged that Ukrainian troops were withdrawing from some positions in the Avdiivka area, but said that Ukrainian troops continued to retake some positions from the Russians.

Analysts say the Russian offensive to capture Avdiivka underscores the Russian military’s inability to conduct a successful operational outreach or encirclement in Ukraine. Russian forces initially attempted to quickly encircle Ukrainian forces in Avdiivka at the start of a local offensive operation in October 2023, but gradually moved to conduct combat operations through the populated area and turn around after they were unable to carry out the rapid maneuver required for encirclement.

The review explains: operational encirclement is a maneuver during which attacking forces completely surround and then destroy a grouping of enemy forces. During such a maneuver, the attacking force attempts to bypass the enemy’s main defenses in order to capture objectives behind those defenses, which allow the attacking force to destroy the defenders in their current positions.

Russian forces achieved neither at Avdiivka, and in particular repeatedly failed to encircle Ukrainian forces throughout the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

ISW experts note that Russian troops made a turn in Avdiivka, as they did during the capture of Bakhmut in the spring of 2023, while they only tried to bypass the main Ukrainian defensive positions to ensure tactical advantages, but did not seek a larger-scale destruction of the Ukrainian group of forces.

The review also adds: Russian forces have expended significant amounts of manpower and equipment to capture Avdiivka, and will likely require a long period of consolidation, recovery and rest before attempting further coordinated offensives in the area.

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