According to a report by the International Labor Organization (ILO), the global unemployment rate is expected to rise to 5.2% this year, driven largely by rising unemployment in advanced economies.
“We forecast a slight decline in labor market performance, partly due to slowing growth worldwide,” – says Richard Samans, director of the ILO’s research department. “Labor markets have shown remarkable resilience despite worsening economic conditions, but the recovery from the pandemic remains uneven as new vulnerabilities and multiple crises undermine prospects for greater social justice.” – the ILO emphasizes.
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Joblessness and the jobs gap have both fallen below pre-pandemic levels, yet global unemployment is set to rise.
📊 What lies ahead for the labour market this year?
🆕 ILO’s World Employment and Social Outlook: Trends 2024 report: https://t.co/paPWBSt8xs pic.twitter.com/G61uOLPeXI
— International Labour Organization (@ilo) January 10, 2024
The report said the unemployment rate – the number of people without jobs and interested in finding one – has fallen below pre-pandemic levels. In 2023, the global unemployment rate was 5.1%, a slight improvement from 2022’s 5.3%. The global employment gap and labor market participation rate also improved in 2023.
However, under these numbers, fragility is beginning to show, according to the report. The report forecasts a worsening labor market outlook and global unemployment. Two million more workers are expected to look for work in 2024, raising the global unemployment rate from 5.1% in 2023 to 5.2%. Disposable incomes have fallen in most G20 countries, and living standards have generally declined as a result of inflation.”unlikely to be quickly compensated“.
Moreover, significant disparities still exist between high- and low-income countries. If in countries with a high level the shortage of jobs in 2023 was 8.2%, then in the group of countries with a low level it was 20.5%. Similarly, while the unemployment rate in 2023 remained at 4.5% in high-income countries, it was 5.7% in low-income countries.
The report says that employment growth in upper-middle-income countries is expected to grow modestly over the next two years, but employment growth in low- and lower-middle-income countries will remain strong: “The situation is particularly worrying in high-income countries, where employment growth will turn negative in 2024 and only modest improvements are expected in 2025.”
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