Summit of Heads of State and Government EU in December, which is intended to demonstrate European support for Ukraine, may well turn out to be a Christmas gift for Russian President Putin.
The summit is still two weeks away and experts are trying to predict whether it will continue as usual or be one of the shortest ever, given that there are many differences between member countries. Not the only, but the main obstacle is the threat of Viktor Orban, the Prime Minister of Hungary, to block EU assistance to Ukraine and its accession to the European Union. “We are heading towards a serious crisis,” one EU official said ahead of the meeting in mid-December. One senior EU diplomat warned it could become “one of the most difficult European councils yet”.
How reports DR edition, it is expected that in December at the summit of EU states and governments decisions will be made that will closely link Ukraine and the European Union. But due to disagreements, the countries of the bloc may settle on a compromise, which will be a huge gift to the President of the Russian Federation, the article notes, and for Kyiv – a tangible defeat.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President Charles Michel outlined plans in December to demonstrate the EU’s broad support for war-torn Ukraine.
If Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, President Macron, Chancellor Scholz and other EU leaders take a formal step to begin accession negotiations for Ukraine and promise the country billions of dollars in support over several years, this will be a historic event for Ukraine and at the same time an extremely unpleasant “surprise.” for President Putin and those in power in the Kremlin. On the agenda for the December summit regarding Ukraine:
- EU leaders must decide to begin negotiations on Ukraine’s accession to the EU.
- EU leaders must accept EU budget reform to ensure €50 billion is allocated to support Ukraine over the next three years.
- The EU must adopt the 12th package of sanctions aimed at Russia and those who help the Russian Federation in its invasion of Ukraine.
- December should be the month when the Europeans demonstrate that Ukraine can continue to count on large-scale military support.
But plans are plans, and obstacles increase. There is a growing group of political leaders in EU circles who doubt that Ukraine can win the war and for whom their own political agenda is more important than supporting Ukraine.
The most symbolic and historic decision of the December EU summit will obviously be the formal decision to begin negotiations with Ukraine on future EU membership. The symbolism will become tangible, the publication notes, if 27 heads of European states and governments stand in Brussels and solemnly declare that they are now taking the first steps to include Ukraine in the EU family. And at the presidential palace in Kyiv, such a statement could provide important moral support in the depths of a cold winter when Russian attacks appear to be intensifying.
A real decision to begin negotiations with Ukraine can be made in practice without great expense. If there is political will. But it becomes clear that decision support is not complete. The most obvious criticism comes from the Hungarian Prime Minister, and there is real concern about whether he will prevent a decision at the EU summit in December from starting negotiations with Ukraine. writes politico. Concern is so great that EU President Charles Michel traveled to Budapest to discuss the issue privately with Viktor Orban.
However, Orbán is not alone in his skepticism. Austria, for example, linked the decision to negotiate Ukraine’s accession to the EU with the decision to also begin negotiations with Bosnia and Herzegovina. Slovakia is unhappy with the decision. There is growing concern in Poland about the consequences of Ukraine’s EU membership. Some EU countries, to a greater or lesser extent, believe that the decision to begin membership negotiations with Ukraine came very quickly.
How will internal disagreements end? A classic EU compromise would be to delay the start of Ukraine’s accession talks from the December summit until the next scheduled meeting in March. By that time, the European Commission will prepare another report on Ukraine’s progress on the country’s path to the EU.
If you follow classic EU logic, this will not be a big disaster. But for Kyiv, a compromise with the EU will be a huge defeat, and for the Kremlin – a big victory. President Putin’s most important weapon now is to continue the war, and then hope that changes in the political landscape of Europe and the United States will do the rest for Russia to end the war victorious.
Putin’s most important weapon in the war against Ukraine is what diplomats in Brussels call “Putin’s strategic patience.” Russia continues the war until the United States and Europe lose their desire to continue supporting Ukraine.
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