The uneven distribution of the population and its age-related changes between 2011 and 2021 is a factor that should be taken into account when developing policies, says Professor Baironas Kotzamanis.
The numbers are inexorable: Greece is aging, and if the most pessimistic scenarios prevail, in 2030 it will become the oldest country in the European Union. Taking measures on the demographic issue is now more than necessary, however, according to scientists, the measures taken should not be horizontal, but take into account the large differences that exist in the regions of the country.
Countering current trends, expected changes and mitigating any negative consequences is the goal of demographic policies such as the National Action Plan announced by the Greek Prime Minister.
According to Baironas Kotzamanis, professor at the University of Thessaly and scientific director of the research program (ELIDEK) “Demographic projects in research and practice in Greece”, such a plan should take into account not only the entire demographic component, but also the existing significant spatial (territorial) differences, that is, large deviations from the national average.
In addition, as demographers emphasize, all available population forecasts for the 2050 horizon agree that the increase in mortality and the decline in fertility cannot be reversed in the medium termas a result of which the natural balance will remain negative, which will further lead to a catastrophic decrease in the country’s population.
At the same time, the deterioration of the already not so favorable environment for starting a family and having children in the medium term will limit the downward trend in the birth rate. A change in policy (support for young families, including financial support) in the long term will allow us to achieve positive results in terms of “rejuvenation” of the Greek population.
At the same time, according to Baironas Kotzamanis, whether our total population will decrease by several hundred thousand or by more than 1.4 million in 2050 will depend mainly on the scale of immigration (the balance of deaths and births).
Demographics are, of course, not a problem unique to Greece. Similar phenomena have been recorded or will soon be recorded in all member countries EU. It’s just that Greece joins the group of states that are “ahead” in terms of “population aging.”
The highly uneven distribution of the population, the change in population between 2011 and 2021 according to census data, the natural balance (fertility-death) before the COVID-19 pandemic, and the aging population represent a large gap that, as Kotzamanis notes, must be included in process of developing demographic policy.
“Nationally, the proportion of people aged 65 and over is 22.5%, and those aged 85 and over are 3.6%. However, these national averages mask significant differences: 10 prefectures “lead” with 28%, and in two of them this share even exceeds 30% (i.e. the percentage of people 65 years and older in these prefectures was higher in 2020 than expected nationally in 2050, which is estimated to reach 30–31%).
A study of the 85 and over age group (that is, the ratio of people 85+ to 65+ for every 100 people) also highlights another aspect—the “decrepancy” within aging.
Thus, Kotzamanis adds, we are heading towards an explosive combination of “aging” and “super-aging”: in more than 1 in 4 prefectures of the country (well before 2050), we will have a situation where people aged 65 years and over will exceed 1/ 3 of their population, and at the same time 1/4 of them will be very old.
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