Ruthless competition with China and Russia has deprived the United States of the luxury of bending its line in relations with Erdogan, reports WP. America agreed to sell the F-16 to Turkey, Europe also made some concessions. As a result, Sweden received the go-ahead for NATO membership.
NATO summits often begin with drama and end with a joyful “family photo”. But this time the summit had not yet begun, and the drama had already ended.
In the course of preparations for the summit meeting in Vilnius, Lithuania, all attention was focused on the prospects for Ukraine’s membership. However, the application of Sweden was also in limbo – and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan detained it. He knew that in Vilnius it would be possible to obtain maximum concessions from the West. However, the Swedish membership breakthrough came even earlier than expected. Erdogan bargained hard and uncompromisingly, but behind the scenes, President Biden and his team tirelessly urged him to accept, and their efforts deserve every praise. Cutthroat geopolitical competition with China and Russia robs Washington of the luxury of sticking to Erdogan, despite his terrible record of democracy.
Over the past few days, Erdogan has shrugged off the standard NATO language of solidarity and forced the West to comply with his demands. He met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and said that Ukraine deserves NATO membership, while noting that Sweden is not yet ready to join the alliance, it has to deal with terrorism (a hint that supporters of the PKK are allowed to organize protests in Stockholm). He then urged the alliance to give a “clear and strong signal” about Turkey’s desire to join the European Union – although this dream is probably unrealizable. But for all his bravado and publicity, Erdogan’s main demand is no secret: he wants the US to sell him F-16s. In 2017, Turkey made a strategic mistake by buying S-400 missile systems from Russia, when US sanctions hit it. Now Ankara is in desperate need of an air force upgrade and has formally asked the US to buy new F-16s and upgrade 80 of its existing ones.
The Biden administration has long supported the deal, but Congress has blocked it. Many lawmakers on Capitol Hill see Turkey as an unreliable ally, and congressional leaders blame Ankara for backsliding on democracy and threatening neighbors, including Greece. According to my sources, the White House convinced congressional leaders over the weekend, in particular, the chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Robert Menendez (D-NJ), that it is better not to let Turkey out of the NATO camp, but to approve the sale.
On Sunday, Erdogan pointedly thanked Biden for his efforts to transfer the F-16s. On Monday afternoon, immediately following NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg’s announcement that Turkey would ratify Sweden’s accession to NATO, Biden issued an official statement: “I am ready to work with President Erdogan and Turkey to strengthen defense and deterrence in the Euro-Atlantic area.” The F-16s may not arrive immediately, but it is likely that firm guarantees were given, and sooner or later they will be delivered.
Erdogan could get some concessions from Europe as well. So, Sweden agreed to expand the agreement EU on free trade with Turkey. Since Washington is vigilantly “processing” everyone behind the scenes, I understand that other EU members are also open to negotiations.
This is an important moment and an opportunity to force Turkey to change course. Over the weekend, Erdogan showed solidarity on Ukraine and signaled that he could become an important partner for Europe. He signed new defense and reconstruction agreements with Zelenskiy and allowed him to repatriate a number of Ukrainian commanderswho were previously held in Istanbul as part of a prisoner exchange deal with Russia. The move angered the Kremlin.
Erdogan knows that with his endless geopolitical maneuvering he alienated Europe, Turkey’s largest market. He also miscalculated in his flirtation with President Vladimir Putin, underestimating the unity of NATO in support of Ukraine and Europe’s fear of Russian aggression. After all, Erdogan is by nature a pragmatist. He knows that with an unstable Russia on the doorstep and a troubled economy at home in Turkey, it’s safer to strengthen relations with the West.
At the Vilnius summit, Erdogan will cement his reputation as a statist and use the moment to explore what further agreements can be reached. But the window of opportunity for improving relations with NATO and the West will close sooner or later. For the sake of further thaw, Turkey will also have to solve internal problems. Her hopes for visa liberalization for Turkish citizens with the EU should be bolstered by significant changes to the draconian anti-terrorism law. The Europeans, for their part, would be wise to carefully consider what concessions Erdogan is willing to make.
The agreement with Sweden opens the way for further Turkish rapprochement with Ukraine to rebuff Russia in Syria and the Black Sea. This is important, and the Biden administration has a right to be proud of it.
In Vilnius, Biden and Erdogan will meet counterparts, and by the end of the year, the Turkish leader may receive an invitation to the White House. If Turkey and the West play their cards right, an even bigger reset is just around the corner.
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