Expectation of “bloody weeks” in the US, “irritation” of Zaluzhny, the plan for the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, when negotiations begin, and a little about Prigozhin – the main thing for today.
Zaluzny: “This is not a show”
Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery Zaluzhny gave an extensive interview The Washington Post, which is extremely rare. He expressed disappointment that while his biggest Western backers would never launch an offensive without air superiority, Ukraine still hasn’t received modern fighter jets. However, he assured that, as expected, she would quickly retake the territory from the Russian occupiers. The American-made F-16s promised just recently are unlikely to arrive until the fall, and this is at best.
“I’m ‘annoyed’,” the commander-in-chief said when he heard that the long-awaited counter-offensive of Ukraine in the east and south of the country began more slowly than expected. According to Zaluzhny, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are moving forward every day, even if it’s only 500 meters”:
“This is not a show. This is not a show that the whole world is watching, betting on or something like that. Every day, every meter is given in blood. Without full support for the troops, these plans are generally unrealistic, but despite everything, “they are performed. Yes, maybe not as fast as the participants of the show, the observers would like, but that’s their problem.”
Zelensky on the course of the counteroffensive
Volodymyr Zelenskyy yesterday again spoke about the reasons for the slow progress of the counteroffensive:
“If the fields are mined, we can’t send our soldiers to die. We’ve had torrential rains that have slowed progress. Partners have been delivering weapons more slowly than expected.”
The President of Ukraine compared the situation to autumn: “Then we had to stop the offensive, because the artillery came too late.” And he asked a rhetorical question: “Would it be better if it lasted two months and thousands of people died, or four months and fewer people died?”
The president’s statements were made to Spanish journalists who had gathered in Kyiv on the occasion of Prime Minister Petro Sanchez’s visit to Ukraine. Key Messages: The counter-offensive is facing challenges due to Russian defenses and lack of air power. Commander-in-Chief Valery Zaluzhny announced the need for aircraft a day earlier, while Zelensky also accused foreign partners of the lack of training schedules for Ukrainian pilots on F-16 fighter jets:
“I have questions for our esteemed partners: do they have an understanding of when Ukraine can receive the F-16? We agreed, we pressed on that we have a coalition of countries that are ready to start training for Ukrainian pilots. There is no schedule for training missions. I think that some partners are dragging this out. Why they are doing this, I don’t know.”
It is worth noting that today’s arguments were voiced on the eve of the counter-offensive and were, as many assumed, the reason for the delay in its launch. Back then, the West wrote a lot about the Russian “Putin Line” with multi-level defenses and vast minefields. That is, it could not come as a big surprise to the military planners of Ukraine and the United States. Immediate forecasts for the situation do not inspire optimism. The head of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, Mark Milley, said, for example, that the counteroffensive will continue for several more weeks and will be “very bloody,” quotes “A country”:
“Is this happening slower than computer calculations or different people predicted? Yes. I told you that it would take from 6 to 10 weeks, it would be very difficult and very long, and very, very bloody. No one here has any illusions must”.
Counteroffensive plans “revealed” to William Burns
The first of July edition Washington Post presented an interesting insider*. It reported that the director of the US Central Intelligence Agency, William Burns, secretly visited Ukraine in June. During the conversations, he was allegedly told the details of an ambitious strategy involving the return of the occupied territories and the opening of negotiations on the conditions for ending the war with Moscow before the end of the year. The plan, according to three newspaper sources, was as follows:
- return a “significant territory” by autumn;
- move artillery and missile systems to the Crimean border;
- move further to the east of Ukraine;
- start open negotiations with Moscow.
A senior Ukrainian official allegedly told the Washington Post:
“Russia will only negotiate if it feels threatened by Crimea. The Ukrainian armed forces will gain leverage over Russia by pushing troops and powerful weapons to the edge of Ukraine’s border with Crimea, taking hostage the peninsula on which Russia’s valuable Black Sea Fleet is based.”
In hypothetical talks, Kyiv would ostensibly agree not to seize Crimea by force, but would demand that Russia accept any security guarantees Ukraine might get from the West. However, the publication notes:
“Whether Ukraine will be able to implement these plans in such a short time remains to be seen. Due to the fact that the counteroffensive is moving slowly, Zelensky and the generals of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are under extreme pressure from Western countries, which provided Kiev with billions of dollars of modern weapons and training before the counteroffensive. “.
Denial of Kyiv
Kyiv refutes the plans announced by the publication. Mykhailo Podolyak, adviser to the head of the President’s Office, called them “conspiracy theories”:
“There are no ways out of the war. All these intriguing descriptions, conspiracy theories – they are somewhat infantilistic. With such a big war, with such a large amount of resources that the Russian Federation uses and at the stakes that the Russian Federation will continue to use, this war does not have a single compromise scenario.
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky yesterday emphasizedthat Ukraine will be ready for a diplomatic settlement of the war only when it reaches the 1991 borders. He spoke about this during a press conference with Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez on Saturday in Kyiv:
“About the situation on the battlefield and whether we are ready for a diplomatic settlement and for what kind of diplomatic settlement if we are at the borders before February 24. These are not our borders, which were on February 24. There was a contact line between us and the occupiers. And therefore we We emphasize once again: Ukraine will be ready for this or that format of diplomacy when we are really on our borders, on our real borders, in accordance with international law.”
He also stated that there would be no negotiations until the withdrawal of Russian troops to the 1991 borders. However, it is clear that even if the plans announced by the publication took place (Burns’s visit to Kiev was also confirmed by other American media), they are unlikely to be confirmed in Kiev until they reach the minimum acceptable military result of the campaign. The question still remains open: will it be an exit to the borders of Crimea or an attack on the peninsula. The answer to it depends both on the position of the United States and on the willingness of the West to raise the stakes in the confrontation with Moscow. And she has hinted more than once that she could use nuclear weapons in an attack on the peninsula.
About Wagner in Belarus
The question of the transfer of the “Wagnerites” who supported Prigozhin’s rebellion to the territory of Belarus, according to the agreement, is gaining ambiguity. Prigozhin travels regularly between Minsk, Moscow and St. Petersburg and is apparently preparing to move to Belarus. The Western media continue to write about the preparation of an abandoned military base to house the “Wagnerites” and publish satellite images of the newly erected tents.
Lukashenka, meanwhile, makes it clear that he only “would like” to get such military men to train his army and clarifies – only “at their expense.” It sounds like the issue has not yet been finally resolved. But the “Wagnerites” have not yet arrived in Belarus, Lukashenka, Russian and Ukrainian sources unanimously declare.
Talk about the fact that Prigozhin’s army will attack Kyiv from there does not stand up to criticism – it has been capturing the small town of Bakhmut for more than 200 days. That is, in any case, PMCs do not have resources for more global operations. And another question is where the “Wagnerites” will get money for their activities.
After the rebellion, all the income of the PMC “Wagner” is in question – both from the Russian budget and from foreign customers. Lukashenka declares that he will not spend money on “Wagnerites”. And Prigozhin’s troll factory is closed.
*Insider – classified information for internal use.
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