Election 2023: Bookmakers Predict Trends Based on Voting Results

Trends in the outcome of the 2023 parliamentary elections in Greece can be traced by the rates of bookmakers: the ruling ND is bet with odds from 1:1.15 to 1:1.07. They bet on the main opposition from 1:4.50 to 1:7.25.

New Democracy is not bet with odds higher than 1:1.15 given by Betsson. Betshop gives the ruling party a 1:1.10 odds, Novibet 1:1.09 and Stoiximan 1:1.07.

Stoiximan is betting on the victory of SYRIZA with odds of 1 : 7.25 (1.25 higher than two weeks earlier), Betshop – 1 : 7.00, Novibet (stable) – 1 : 6.50 and Betsson – 1 : 4, 50, which gives the opposition party the best chance.

Similarly, in the PASOK-KINAL primaries the odds are 1:501 in Novibet, 1:500 in Stoiximan, Betshop and 1:300 in Betsson.

For a possible KΚΕ primary, the odds are 1:5,001 in Novibet, 1:5,000 in Stoiximan and Betshop, and Besson is offering 1:2,000.

The odds on Ελληνική Λύση are much higher, namely 1:7501 from Novibet, 1:7500 from Stoiximan and Betshop and 1:5000 from Betsson.

MerA25 is offered by Novibet at 1:7,501, Betsson at 1:5,000, and Stoiximan and Betshop are offering a “different” option at 1:5,000. Significantly, these odds have risen significantly since the Supreme Court’s decision to “cut” some of the so-called protests. parties.

Elections 2023: what is the limit bookmakers set for the percentage of parties

Each company sets its own limit on the percentage of each batch and whether it will be higher/lower (i.e. higher or lower).

New Democracy

• Stoiximan sets an average Over/Under limit for the Southwest at 34.25%. The coefficient for exceeding this threshold is 1.87 and the same coefficient for falling.
• Novibet sets the limit at 32.25%. The coefficients for exceeding are 1.5, and for falling – 2.50.
• Betshop sets the limit at 34.25% with a back of 1.90 and a lay of 1.90.
• Betsson sets the limit at 32.5% with a back of 1.60 and a lay of 2.20.

In other words, the percentage threshold that New Democracy will receive is getting higher than it was two weeks ago, which is also reflected in the latest polls.

As for the variation in the percentage of the New Democracy electorate – although this is more likely – in Novibet it is between 30.01% and 33.00% with a coefficient of 1.80, Stoiximan considers the most likely scenario between 33.01% and 35, 00%, giving odds of 1.75, while Betshop places it between 33.01% and 36.00% at odds of 1.55.

SYRIZA

For SYRIZA, the Over/Under ratio is also set by different companies.

• Stoiximan sets the average cap at 29.50%. The coefficient for exceeding this value is 2.08, and for falling – 1.70.
• Novibet sets the limit at 28.75%. The odds “above” is 1.70 and “below” is 2.10.
• As far as Betshop is concerned, they set the limit at 30.00%, with backs of 2.10 and lays of 1.70.
• Betsson sets the limit at 29.50%. The “behind” coefficient is 1.83, which corresponds to the “behind” coefficient.

When it comes to the percentage variation of SYRIZA selections, the lowest and most likely odds are placed between 27.01% and 30.00% (1.90 at Stoiximan, 1.85 at Betshop and 1.85 at Novibet).

As for the difference between the two leading parties, ND and Syriza, bookmakers give a lower return, therefore more likely – it is less than 4.00% according to Stoiximan (1.70 vs 2.08) and less than 3.50% according to Novibet ( 1.65 vs 2.15). At 4.58% at Betshop, the odds split (1.90-1.90). In other words, the difference has slightly increased compared to two weeks earlier.

Over/Under coefficient for PASOK-KINAL and KKE

As for PASOK-KINAL and the Over/Under coefficient, it is set:

• 10.50% of Betshop, with the percentage above this odd being 1.80 and below it being 2.00.
• At the level of 9.75% of Stoiximan, the percentage above this value is 1.45, below – 2.65. At 9.75% of Novibet, with odds above this 1.60 and below this 2.25.
• At 9.50% of Betsson, with odds above this 1.50 and below this 2.35.

In aggregate, the coefficients have not changed much.

Similarly, Over/Under is defined on KKE:

• at 6.25% of Betshop, with odds above 1.90 and below 1.90.
• At 6.45% of Stoiximan, with interest above that paying 1.87 and below that paying 1.90.
• Under 6.00% from Novibet, with odds above this 1.60 and below this 2.25.
• At 5.50% of Betsson, with odds above 1.25 and below 3.20.

In other words, an increase in the rate is predicted compared to two weeks earlier.

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