Washington Post on prospects "protracted conflict" in Ukraine

WP described the prospect of a “protracted conflict in Putin’s favor” if Ukraine fails to achieve victory in 2023.

A dedicated $45 billion aid package from the United States is intended to support Ukraine throughout the year. And then? The publication notes that the Ukrainian military may face many problems, despite such factors as the motivation of the army, Western support, the momentum from recent victories.

Military analysts list the problems that, according to experts, the Armed Forces of Ukraine may face and the prospects for a “protracted conflict in favor of Putin” if Ukraine does not win this year:

1. The Russians are fortifying defensive positions, which will be reinforced by a minimum of 100,000 mobilized.

2. Last year, the mistakes of the Russian Federation contributed to the success of Ukraine; they are less likely to happen again. Kyiv’s success was also based on the fact that Russia’s goals were too ambitious, and Ukraine won by the fact that it survived as a state.

3. A lot depends on which side runs out of ammo first. Evidence continues to come that the Russian Federation has fewer shells. A Western official told the publication: “And although Russia has begun ramping up production, it is clear that it may not match consumption.” But it is by no means a fact that the West will be able to satisfy all the needs of Ukraine.

4. The unchanged front line this year bodes “gloomier” forecasts. A protracted war will indefinitely delay the restoration of Ukraine. The article elaborates: “The Ukrainian government will have to maintain hundreds of thousands of troops along some 600-mile front lines as its economy continues to crumble, which in some ways advances Putin’s goal of destroying Ukraine’s success as an independent country.”

With time, experts say, Ukraine’s offensive capabilities will be depleted, as there will be an inevitable decrease in the number of experienced soldiers. After that, Russia will have a chance to restore its economy and combat capabilities to launch an offensive in the future. The article says: “If Putin can turn this into a multi-year war of attrition, he can probably sit out Ukraine.”

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