What Will Change on the Front if the West Allows Ukraine to Hit Russia with Storm Shadow Missiles

There are more and more rumors in the Western media that Ukraine will be given the right to strike Russia with British Storm Shadow or French equivalents Scalp. At the same time, the US will leave in force the ban on the use of long-range versions ATACMS.

What could Storm Shadow change if they could strike at internationally recognized Russian territory? The range of the missiles that have been supplied to Kyiv so far is 250 kilometers. There are also versions with a range of 560 kilometers, but nothing has been reported about their deliveries yet. Judging by publications in the American press, Biden is discussing the possibility of expanding the zone of permissible use of Western weapons against the Russian Federation – “to counterattack Russian attacks”. Which fits into the logic of a radius of up to 250 kilometers rather than up to 560 kilometers. That is, the baseline scenario can be that Ukraine will receive the right to strike with a shorter-range export version. Storm Shadow.

“Storm” is a cruise missile launched from the air – an aircraft is needed for this. From which it follows that the actual radius of destruction of targets in Russia will be less than 250 kilometers: the aircraft will not be able to fly close to the border, so as not to come under fire from Russian air defense. Or, in order to bring aircraft to the border at the closest possible distance, it will first be necessary to suppress Russian air defense systems in the required direction. And for this, a combined strike will have to be carried out, which in any case will complicate the use Storm ShadowFor this reason alone, the use of these missiles against the Russian Federation is unlikely to become massive – each strike will require complex measures to ensure the safety of the aircraft.

The second factor limiting the mass scale is the shortage of the missiles themselves. If we are to believe the British press, Ukraine has already practically used up its Storm Shadow stock on strikes against Crimea. Which, let us recall, did not lead to critical supply problems for the southern group of Russian troops in Ukraine (another issue is the damage to the Russian Black Sea Fleet, but at the current stage of the war this topic does not directly affect the situation on the front in Ukraine).

However, if we take the range characteristics as a basis Storm Shadow, then such large cities of the Russian Federation as Voronezh, Lipetsk, Rostov-on-Don, Orel, Bryansk and Kursk fall into the hypothetical zone of their destruction. At the same time, the missile carries a warhead that is twice as heavy as that of ATACMS – up to 460 kilograms. And it is distinguished by its low visibility, since it flies quite low. That is, it will hit targets within a radius of 100-150 kilometers from the Russian border quite effectively (the further the target, the more likely it is that the missile will be shot down by air defense on its way).

But, as we have already written, this effectiveness can be limited by the threat of losing carrier aircraft, which the Ukrainian Armed Forces have a shortage of, as well as a shortage of missiles themselves. Also, launching missiles from aircraft imposes a limitation on the speed of striking after detecting a target (it takes time to prepare the aircraft for takeoff, time for the takeoff itself and time to approach the missile launch zone). And this makes it virtually impossible for “aircraft” missiles to hit targets that do not stay in one place for long (for example, missile launchers). In fact, they can only hit stationary targets.

At the same time, as Western officials have stated, the Russians are actively moving strategically important military facilities beyond the range of Western missiles. In particular, we are talking about aircraft basing sites. Therefore, most likely, the lifting of missile restrictions will not have any strategic impact on the front in Ukraine. Western media are already writing about this.

Another issue is that such a decision will sharply aggravate the international situation as a whole, since the stakes are already rising directly between Russia and the West, and Moscow is already threatening to respond to the actions of the US and Britain. And this, in turn, undermines the idea of ​​the negotiation process and ending the war along the current front line, which is being promoted not only by countries in the global South, but also by many in the West.

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