Forbes: "If Ukraine's invasion of Russia's Kursk region was a diversionary tactic, it failed."

“If Ukraine's invasion of Russia's Kursk region was a diversionary tactic, it failed,” – Forbes states in the headline.

Russian troops continue attack on Pokrovskk, and the Ukrainian Armed Forces do not have a large number of reserves to strengthen this direction, since many of them were sent to the Kursk region. The Russian Federation did not transfer its forces from Donbass, and its advance only accelerated.

“The six or so Ukrainian brigades defending Pokrovsk are outnumbered by about half. Without help, they may have no choice but to surrender Pokrovsk – and soon,” – the publication writes.

Conflict Intelligence Team analysts said that the offensive in the Kursk region not only failed to lead to the redeployment of some Russian forces from Donetsk, but also exacerbated the shortage of Ukrainian troops in the region. “Although we assumed that the city of Novogrodovka would be taken in the coming days, the pace of advance of Russian troops exceeded our expectations; not only did they not slow down as they approached the city, but they even accelerated,” – CIT believes.

If Russia takes Pokrovsk, it will be able to weaken Ukraine's defenses along the entire eastern front line, which is a key condition for a broader Russian offensive that could lead to the complete capture of the Donetsk region, the publication writes.

“The Ukrainian leadership has several options to stabilize the line, including deploying newly formed brigades, redeploying forces from the Kursk and Kharkov areas, or withdrawing battalions from more stable fronts. It remains to be seen whether the Ukrainian command will take these steps,” – say analysts from Frontelligence Insight.

Let us recall that yesterday Zelensky announced “an extremely difficult situation” in the Pokrovsky direction. Forbes considers this a sign that “Ukrainian leaders are finally beginning to understand the urgency of the balance of power in the Pokrovsk direction.”

In the Ukrainian segment of Telegram are also actively discussing the issue of Zelensky's “Kursk operation” and a possible counterattack by the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Pokrovsk direction. If we collect different points of view and discard the ideological chaff, it turns out next picture:

“To tell the truth, we have been racking our brains for the last two days, trying to answer the question of what is actually happening on this section of the front. The option of surrendering these territories as non-priority is not being considered, because, as we have already wrotethe importance of this section of the front is difficult to overestimate. It is also hard to believe that the distributed pressure exerted by the Russian Armed Forces along the entire front line worked in one specific direction, since “average for the ward” The temperature on the rest of the front is about the same: the Russians are advancing very slowly. And here it's a real disaster.

At the same time, the Russian Armed Forces are moving quite carefully and competently. To turn to the south, they really need Novogrodovka, preferably also Grodovka and Selidovo. These three points will serve as a stiffener for the turn to the south. But they have already taken Novogrodovka, Grodovka practically, in Selidovo there are battles today. Therefore, there is no point in talking about some kind of frontal counterattack. Talking about a counterattack from below is also wrong, because the strike force needs to be put in a vice. Well, in general, it's not serious.

A strike from the north is the only viable option. The biggest problem is that there are no large settlements there in which troops can be concentrated unnoticed. There is also the problem of losing New York. If the Ukrainian Armed Forces do start concentrating troops in the north of the Pokrovsk direction west of Toretsk to strike south, they can always be struck in the flank from New York.

But the most important thing is the concentration of Russian troops in this direction. A 150,000-strong group can always find reserves and deploy them to counter a counterattack. Therefore, it is impossible to compare the kilometers that the Ukrainian Armed Forces need to cover to cut the main supply artery that goes through Ocheretino (5 km there) with the kilometers that were covered in the Kursk region, where there were several conscript detachments and surprise. Here, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are dealing with the most powerful group of the Russian Federation on the front.

There is also the problem of motivated reserves:

• some of the combat-ready brigades are on rotation after the battles for Ocheretino,
• some have already been withdrawn from Kursk with significant losses,
• part is located in Kursk.

Therefore, Syrsky's reserves are very limited, and the Russians know this. This was one of the big problems of the Kursk operation, because the number of mobile reserves of the Ukrainian Armed Forces has been greatly reduced, which unties the hands of the Russian Armed Forces. Therefore, we don’t really believe in a counterattack in this area.”.

Source link