Greece: Declining birth rate in recent decades is a fact

The study shows that in every third Greek municipality, fewer than 10 children are born each year.

At the national level it has been established that Between 1979–83 and 2014–19, the birth rate fell by 37%. It is expected to decline by another 13% in the six-year period 2020–25.

Such a reduction inevitably affects the country's young population, starting from preschool age and then at all levels of the educational system. Several days ago, regional directors announced the closure of a large number of primary schools and kindergartens, many of which have already been closed for many years.

The reasons cited include the small or zero number of students, and in some cases the inadequate infrastructure of the building. This decision has returned the public to the “subfertility” that began five decades ago, i.e. the decline in the birth rate in the country, which is a direct result of the decline in the birth rate in subsequent generations (from 2.1-2.0 children per woman between 1940 and 1960 to less than 1.5 children after 1985).

These are the first findings mentioned in the recent digital bulletin of the Institute for Demographic Studies (IDEM) on the topic “In one in three of the 1,035 municipalities in our country, less than 10 children are born per year, a paradox?”. The authors of the study are professors Byron Kotsamanis and Vasilis Pappas, founding members of IDEM.

At the national level, the recorded decline in birth rates since 1980 is not occurring at the same rate across Greece's regions, according to researchers. and this is not only due to differential fertility of couples (some of them have slightly more children than others). It is also directly is associated with changes in the total population of each region over time, which is significantly influenced by migration (internal and external), which is reflected in the number of people of childbearing age (20-49 years).

The analysis of the studies shows that the number of municipalities with an extremely limited number of births (up to 60 births in six years) is significantly increasing: in the first six years this is 29.8% of municipalities, and in the second six years – 35.5%. In every second municipality the population is 1000-3600 people, and in every tenth – less than 250. A very small number of women have not given birth/will not give birth, and only 8% of them will give birth in the range of 41-60 in six years (i.e. 7-10 per year).

What are the key commonalities? An analysis by the Institute for Demographic Studies and Research (IDEM), the two researchers report, provides a first answer. Regions with extremely limited birth rates are sparsely populated and are characterized at the same time by a rapid population decline, a high level of population aged 60 and over, a declining youth population and a low birth rate in the 20-49 age group, far fewer births than deaths, and an absence of foreigners.

In concluding their short article, the researchers note that the existence today of more than 1/3 of the 1,035 areas with extremely limited and declining birth rates cannot be explained solely by declining fertility (i.e., a reduction in the number of children born in generations after 1960). This is also due to the extremely uneven distribution of the population in the region.: 10% of the territory concentrated 62% of the population, while every second inhabitant of the country lived in 2021 in only 75 local communities, occupying only 2% of the territory (out of 6138 in total), which is the result of intense internal migration of 50 years from 1950 to 2000 (and the outflow of youth abroad in the last 15 years).

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