It has begun. Provocation of unacceptable escalation or a diversionary strike?

Today, the Ukrainian Armed Forces units carried out offensive actions on the territory of the Kursk region of the Russian Federation. What is known at this hour:

• Zelensky is no longer hiding behind the Russian Volunteer Corps, as was the case with the RDK raids in the Bryansk region. This is important☝️ This gives the Russian Federation a reason to declare a WAR of Ukraine against the territory of the Russian Federation recognized by international law and the international community. NOT about “SVO”, NOT about “martial law”, NOT about the defense of Ukraine on its territory, but about war;
  Apparently this is one of the tasks – unacceptable escalation.
• The Ukrainian Armed Forces carried out more than just a sabotage and reconnaissance group sortie. The offensive is supported by armored vehicles, drones, and, of course, artillery. The same American Bradleys have been spotted, pushing into the territory of the canonical Russian Federation. Another reason for the Russians to talk about war with NATO;
• The reserves (quality and quantity) accumulated by the Ukrainian Armed Forces in this direction are excessive for a normal attempt to stretch the Russian troops;
• Both sides suffered losses. Russian channels publish burning armored vehicles and BUKs of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, which covered the offensive. Ukrainian channels publish a video with three prisoners and a burning helicopter;
• All data and videos about losses need to be carefully rechecked. The IPSO is in full swing on both sides. The same Azov is hyping up that the coming weeks will change the WORLD;
• The attackers were clearly expected. The Russian Armed Forces used almost all types of possible weapons: artillery, Lancets, Iskanders, FAB strikes, and Su-25s and attack helicopters were also used. All of this was recorded on video;
• The Russian Defense Ministry stated that the attackers had been pushed back into Ukrainian territory and blocked. In reality, active military operations in the area continue;
• Ukrainian officials prefer to remain silent. Apparently, so that it doesn't turn out like last year's “extremely successful” counteroffensive by the Ukrainian Armed Forces, which the talking heads talked about for the first two weeks.

It is too early to draw any definitive conclusions about whether this operation is the main direction of the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ attack.

The excess of reserves of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the direction speaks FOR this. Perhaps Zelensky intends to use the territories captured in case of success as a bargaining chip, but so far nothing has been captured, and time is not in favor of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, the Russian Armed Forces are actively transferring reserves.

But it looks MORE like Putin is being provoked:

• announce a new mobilization (we need to defend the original Russian territories, and not withdraw troops from the offensive of the Russian army);
• use non-conventional weapons (due to an attack on the territory of the Russian Federation);
• transfer reserves, which will reduce the pressure in Donbass.

But so far the goals of the provocation have not been achieved even close, since there is nothing to offer as a result.

From Kyiv it looks like a complete gamble. The last one with the attack on the Bryansk region only caused fire on Kharkov. Sumy, it seems, should get ready.

Besides, things are really bad in the Pokrovsk direction. New York is about to fall. Entering into a territorial exchange with the Russian Federation instead of strengthening the defense of Pokrovsk and Chasovy Yar is a tactic calculated for short-term media success.

We will observe. For now, we can state that the Ukrainian Armed Forces did not even have 8 hours from the start of the operation to the strike on the attackers with everything they had.

Ukrainian media headlines

As usual, the CIPSO is acting as a separate front.

In the Ukrainian segment it doesn't work out very well. Except for a peculiar expert Svitanaactively promoting the topic of the invasion of 2.5 telegram channels, which publish everything that is. And there is frankly not much: 2 tanks destroyed on trawls, 3 prisoners, a downed helicopter and a video of bombed houses in villages.

We think this is why the vast majority of channels are very careful not to attract unnecessary attention.

The last visit of the RDC in the first hours was accompanied by photos of houses like those from Tetkino. This time they decided not to do so, to avoid the opposite effect. But then it was these photos that made the main effect, and now they are gone.

There are currently three prisoners and a helicopter. Considering that sabotage and reconnaissance groups with MANPADS entered the breakthrough zone, and the best air defense systems cover them from Ukrainian territory, it must be admitted that the Russian Armed Forces are acting very carefully.

When we modeled such an invasion, we defined hunting for the VKS as one of the goals. So far, the result is weak.

Separately, there are rumors about panic in the region, lack of evacuation and queues at ATMs. This is all a common tactic in such approaches and in the Russian Federation, as well as in Ukraine, they have already become accustomed to it. Therefore, as we can see, this does not cause any particular excitement on the Internet.

There are also rumors about Kadyrov's men (that they are not protecting the border).

The Ukrainian Armed Forces took into account all the mistakes of the RDC entry. Very dense work of electronic warfare, drones and fantastic saturation of the area with equipment, including evacuation equipment, is noted, so as not to leave prisoners on the territory of the Russian Federation, so that there is no reverse content with prisoners. As we assumed, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are trying to isolate the front section, thanks to technical superiority.

Russian channels are commenting very carefully on what is happening. There is criticism of the military leadership, which allegedly slept through the invasion, despite public reports of the concentration of troops in this direction.

Overall, the attack was much larger in scale and better prepared than the one carried out by the RDC.

From the point of view of the Kursk operation, tomorrow will be a decisive day.

Both sides are pulling together reserves, TG channels report. In addition, insiders from both sides confirmed this to us.

When we modeled such an invasion of the territory of the Russian Federation, we took into account that the Ukrainian Armed Forces would have a head start for the first 24 hours. Then the Russian Federation would bring up reserves, special forces, a bunch of tactical aviation (understandable given the new range of airfield destruction) and would cover a small section of the front with all of this.

If tomorrow the Ukrainian Armed Forces are unable to take something significant from the populated areas, then they are unlikely to advance further.

Therefore, strikes on nuclear power plants are a likely target, given the main objective of the operation – escalation.

There is no talk of any long-term retention of a small area on the territory of the Russian Federation given the current balance of power between the parties.

You have to understand this in order to live in a world of illusions.

The author's opinion may not coincide with the opinion of the editors.

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