Withdrawal of the Ukrainian Armed Forces from Avdiivka – reasons, significance and consequences

On the night of Saturday, February 17, the Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Alexander Syrsky, announced the withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from Avdiivka, Donetsk region. What is the significance of this settlement?

BBC Russian edition tellsthat the Russians managed to encircle part of the Ukrainian troops and cut off the last major route along which the Ukrainian Armed Forces were supplied. Syrsky’s statement on Facebook said:

“Based on the operational situation that has developed around Avdeevka, in order to avoid encirclement and preserve the lives and health of military personnel, I decided to withdraw our units from the city and switch to defense on more advantageous lines.” Alexander Tarnavsky, commander of the Tavria group, said that “personnel have already been withdrawn” and the Ukrainian military “took up defensive positions at certain lines.”

Russian forces have repeatedly attempted to capture Avdeevka since the invasion began in February 2022. A large-scale offensive against it began in the fall of 2023. Sources close to the Russian authorities told the publication that the Kremlin had received instructions to seize Avdievka at any cost before the March elections in order to demonstrate success in the war.

The Ukrainian Defense Forces have been on the defensive since October; at the end of January, experts started talking about a critical situation and the need to withdraw the garrison, but this did not happen.

Avdeevka is an industrial town near Donetsk, captured by pro-Russian separatists almost 10 years ago – in the spring of 2014. All these years, Avdiivka was held by Ukrainian troops, who built powerful defensive fortifications there. Despite the proximity to the line of contact between the parties, before the outbreak of a full-scale war, the city developed and grew economically. Everything changed in February 2022. The local factory shut down and most residents evacuated to escape the daily bombings.

Convinced that it would not be possible to overcome the powerful defensive lines quickly and easily, the Russian army moved on to destroying the city with air strikes and infantry assaults. Now, the BBC states, there is little left of the city: almost all buildings in the city have been completely destroyed or significantly damaged.

For both sides, Avdiivka was of both political and military importance. Russia tried to move Ukrainian troops to a safe distance so that Donetsk would not come under artillery fire from the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Avdiivka is important for Ukraine as a large railway junction, a powerful industrial center, and also as a constant potential threat to Donetsk. A few kilometers from it there is a road connecting Donetsk, Gorlovka and Lugansk. If it could be cut, it would significantly complicate the logistics of Russian troops.

On October 10, the Russian army launched a large-scale offensive against Avdeevka. The offensive, according to Kyiv’s estimates, involved approximately 40,000 Russian soldiers, attacking from the southern and northern flanks, trying to bypass Avdeevka and encircle it.

During four months of fighting, the Russians managed to advance several kilometers in the north and south. They captured the villages of Stepnoye and Berdich, approaching the local coke plant – one of the important strongholds of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. In January, Russian troops managed to enter the city and start street battles. They were also approaching the main road along which supplies of the Ukrainian Armed Forces were going.

In early February, the situation became critical for the city’s defenders; a number of military observers began talking about the threat of encirclement. But Kyiv did not give the command to withdraw from Avdeevka and sent Experienced units are there for reinforcement.

The situation was reminiscent Bakhmut, as military experts warned about. As of mid-February, the safe corridor for the Ukrainian Armed Forces soldiers to exit was 4-5 km. Despite heavy losses, the Kremlin achieved its goals in this direction. The last defensive line of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, which had not changed since 2014, fell.

This is the first strategically important victory of the Russian Federation since the spring-summer of 2022, when Mariupol, the land corridor to Crimea, and most of the Luhansk and Kherson regions were captured. The capture of Bakhmut was not a strategic victory due to the fact that it did not open up space for further advancement and did not solve any strategic problems. The capture of Avdeevka for the Russian Federation solves at least one strategic problem – it moves the front away from Donetsk.

The next significant target of the Russian army could be the city of Selidovo, 30 km west of Avdeevka, or the city of Pokrovsk, located 12 km northwest of Selidovo.

The further development of military events primarily depends on whether the Ukrainian Armed Forces will be able to hold the new line of defense, to which Syrsky announced a withdrawal. If they can, then the loss of Avdeevka will not lead to fundamental changes along the entire front line and, especially, to a turning point in the war. But if the Russians are able to develop their offensive further – to the west of the Donetsk region towards Pokrovsk (with the prospect of an attack on Pavlograd), this will create a significant threat to the entire Ukrainian Armed Forces group on the southern front.

Experts from the Institute of Study ISW Wars noted that the Russian military has gradually increased its use of glide bombs since early 2023. But the recent mass use of them in Avdievka is the first time Russian aviation has used bombs on a large scale to provide air support for advancing infantry forces.

Russia’s ability to carry out these massive strikes over several days on the most active part of the front line suggests that Ukrainian forces were unable to deny access to the airspace around Avdievka, and Russian forces likely used this temporary localized air advantage to facilitate the takeover a large part of the city.

A representative of the Ukrainian brigade operating near Avdiivka said on February 17 that Russian forces had fired 60 KAB glide bombs at Ukrainian positions in Avdiivka over the past 24 hours. And a Ukrainian military officer operating in the area said Russian troops have fired up to 500 glide bombs at Avdiivka in recent days.

Russian sources largely characterized the Ukrainian withdrawal as disorganized and claimed that it was possible to encircle large Ukrainian groups in Avdiivka, but ISW found no evidence to support these Russian claims. Russian sources also believe that the use of glide bombs allowed them to overcome Ukrainian defenses in Avdiivka, and some military bloggers have argued that Russian forces have air superiority in the area.

ISW noted that delays in Western security assistance could lead to further significant restrictions on Ukrainian air defense. This could allow Russian forces to replicate the air support that fueled Russia’s massive advance in Avdiivka.

Limited air defense systems, dwindling stockpiles of air defense missiles, and persistent Russian missile and drone attacks on rear-area cities will likely force Ukraine to make difficult choices about which parts of the front line will receive air defense cover.

US President Joe Biden believes that on the morning of February 17, the Ukrainian military was forced to withdraw from Avdiivka due to a lack of ammunition and a reduction in their reserves. He noted, it is said in message The White House that this happened as a result of congressional inaction and led to Russia’s first notable successes in several months.

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