"Conversation": how the war in Ukraine became a “war of the poor”

The war in Ukraine is increasingly being called a “poor man’s war” as Zelensky raises taxes and proposes strict conscription laws for non-volunteers.

After failure of the Ukrainian counter-offensive 2023 year, Vladimir Zelensky finds himself at a serious crossroads, where there are no easy paths. The Ukrainian president’s demand late last year to call up an additional 500,000 troops in the coming months shows both determination and desperation, the newspaper notes.Conversation“

Two additional bills on conscription, which the government introduced into parliament on December 30, 2023, show that Zelensky and his circle are serious. At the same time, if the new approach to conscription is adopted and implemented, it will put significant pressure on already overburdened state institutions and society in Ukraine.

Are they running out of people to recruit?

As senior Ukrainian officials have publicly confirmed, large numbers of volunteers to serve on the front simply no longer exist. Therefore, the government is proposing enforcement measures to ensure the continuation of conscription. These range from high fines for draft evasion to confiscation of property and freezing of private bank accounts, and even revocation of passports of Ukrainian refugees abroad.

Conscription into the army, restrictions on the rights and freedoms of the population, further economic devastation and social disasters stand in stark contrast to the lifestyle of an entrenched and unaccountable elite fueled by corruption. The latter group in particular, numbering approximately 600,000 fighting age men living in EU, will become a key target of Kyiv’s recruitment efforts. Addressing them directly in his New Year’s speech, Zelensky did not skimp on his words: “You have to decide whether you are refugees or citizens.”

At the same time, further efforts will be made to transfer the Ukrainian economy to a war footing, the Ukrainian Prime Minister announced. The planned conscription will be accompanied by a new economic strategy that will increase the tax burden on individuals and small and medium-sized enterprises, and social spending will be radically reduced.

Deepening social divide

These measures are certainly strategically necessary – especially if Ukraine wants to regain the initiative on the battlefield. But overall, these actions by the Zelensky government have reignited potentially divisive debates in Ukrainian society about social justice, corruption and the social contract between the elite and society. The level of public trust in the elite is already low and continues to decline, and war is increasingly perceived as “a war waged by the poor.”

The ability to buy your way out of conscription has become one of the most serious factors that influences the desire of Ukrainians to fight: “If you have money, you can give a bribe and stay home. If you don’t have money, you will be sent to slaughter.” This is how Ukrainians think.

In addition, demographic trends in Ukrainian society are further exacerbating the unfavorable long-term prospects of an increasing number of people living in poverty. Life expectancy for men has dropped from an already low 65 years in 2021 to 57 years in 2023.

The birth rate remains very low, with some demographers estimating that it will drop to 0.55 children per family in 2023. Meanwhile, since the beginning of the war, the migration of a more skilled and economically active population has accelerated. As a result, it is mainly the poor who have to fight, and their standard of living continues to decline.

Forced conscription, restrictions on the rights and freedoms of the population, further economic disruption and social malaise stand in stark contrast to what is widely believed to be the lifestyle of an entrenched and unaccountable elite fueled by corruption.

Zelensky needs to formulate a clearer goal

Zelensky himself may not (yet) be directly involved, and his relative lack of success in rooting out corruption has not yet caused any significant damage to his popularity. Several people around him are clearly linked to corrupt practices. In any case, more fragile domestic politics among the military and political elite will undermine Ukraine’s resilience and effectiveness in fighting from within, turning it into a pawn in the hands of the Russians.

Ukraine needs a new social contract between the elite and society, as well as a reassessment of its military strategy. However, both are unlikely. Zelensky and his Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba insist that there is a path to victory and that “they do not have a Plan B.” This uncompromising position is reflected in the current draft plans.

However, more people is not a strategy. At best, they can be part of a strategy. To justify the undeniable sacrifice Zelensky is asking Ukrainian society to make, he needs to articulate a clearer goal and direction. A simple repetition of what is desired – the complete liberation of the country – will sooner or later be perceived in Ukraine and in the capitals of its Western partners as a fantasy, dangerously divorced from the reality on the ground.

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