Greek-Turkish Relations: The Phone Call That Failed and a New Balance

Greek diplomacy continues the necessary preparations pending the outcome of the meeting between Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on the sidelines of the NATO summit in Vilnius.

Even in the most difficult moments of the Greek-Turkish relations, there was a special channel of communication between the ministers of defense, which was activated not only when it was necessary to reduce tension, but also in social circumstances, such as, for example, the assumption of a new minister’s office. Therefore, it was customary for the minister taking office to accept congratulations from his colleague.

Although a week has passed since Nikos Dendias took office as Minister of National Defense, Yasar Güler did not send a congratulatory letter, and there was no recorded intention of contact from the Turkish side. Ankara’s “silence” does not go unnoticed in Athens, especially since great efforts are being made to improve the climate in relations between the two countries.

Meeting in Vilnius
On a completely different note, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan invited Giorgi Herapetrit to congratulate him the day after taking office, and the two ministers agreed to meet on the sidelines of the NATO summit in Vilnius, Lithuania. In the case of defense ministers, of course, diplomatic protocol does not apply, as in the case of foreign ministers, but everything in politics is symbolic, and the attitude of the Turkish defense minister certainly sends a signal.

Of course, in addition to obscenities, Athens is interested in maintaining calm in the Aegean. After a difficult period of alternating tensions, culminating in the Orut Reyes crisis in the summer of 2020, the Greek side wants to keep a low tone and return the two countries to the dialogue table.

The first step to break the “ice” can be taken in Vilnius, although at the time of writing the initiative for a meeting, even a short one, on the sidelines of the summit has not been put forward. Athens, however, notes that the two ministers have enough time to communicate and organize a “getting to know each other” meeting in Lithuania.

The next day
Pentagon sources describe Yasar Guler as a relatively hard-to-get-together man who gets along better with the military, as he himself comes from the ranks of the Turkish military, like his predecessor Hulussi Akar. However, one of the top priorities for Nikos Dendias, who has extensive experience as a former head of Greek diplomacy, is to “forge” channels of communication with his Turkish counterpart to keep the tone low and keep the dialogue window open.

A few months ago, the two sides agreed to resume the confidence-building measures that were frozen in April 2022. But while Turkey does not give up its claims, and, given the invariance of the position of Greece, the balance in Greek-Turkish relations remains fragile.

Athens acknowledges the absence of violations and overflights, as well as the general atmosphere of calm on the ground following the devastating earthquakes that hit Turkey in early February. However, it was not without well-known “dissonances” on the part of Ankara, such as recent references to the “blue motherland”, an uncompromising position on the Cyprus issue, revisionism and an attempt to challenge international treaties. It goes without saying that Greece will try to take advantage of the situation, but Turkey’s real intentions are expected to become clear after the Vilnius summit.

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