Approximately 12% of voters in the national elections on Sunday May 21 suddenly found themselves “homeless” after their parties were excluded from the elections.
After the Supreme Council of State of Greece (Supreme Court) refused to participate in elections to parties, either due to violations of the electoral law (Emfietzoglu-Bogdanu and Latinopoulou parties), or for formal reasons (they were unable to submit a legal candidacy), such as The Greek Christian Democrats of N. Nikolopoulos and a number of other parties, or were banned in accordance with the votes of the New Democracy and PASOK, such as the Greek National Party “Έλληνες” by Ilias Casidiaris.
This 10% to 12% could potentially bring victory to either the New Democracy or SYRIZA, if, of course, this percentage votes for one of the two “power parties”, as the party formations claiming power are called.
Because right now the two main parties, ND and SYRIZA, have potentially around 30% of the popular vote, assuming the polls are correct. Even with the 26% that the polls give SYRIZA, 10-12% of the supporters of the excluded parties will give victory to any of them!
But the question is what voters will vote for these 10-11%, who feel excluded from the government. Certainly not for ND, at least not for the vast majority of them.
This is 7% or so that will vote for the Greek National Party “Έλληνες” and a total of 3% for the parties of Emfietzoglou-Bogdanos, Latinopoulou and Nikolopoulos, since all three parties had around 1% each before being excluded from the electoral process.
Perhaps the party of N. Nikolopoulos could potentially collect about 0.5%, and the rest – about 1.2%. At the same time, the percentages of the Greek National Party “Έλληνες” and three other small conservative parties are about 10%!
Thus, we have a set of the above at least 10% of voters. There are also several parties that were also banned by the Supreme Court – on anti-systemic grounds, on formal grounds: ΠΑΤΡΙΩΤΙΚΗ ΕΝΩΣΗ “ΕΛ.ΛΑ.Σ” -ΕΛΛ. AT ΌΜΜΑ (Λ.ΕΥ.ΚΟ), ΕΛΛΗΝΕΣ, ΕΛΛΗΝΙΚΟ ΛΕΥΚΟ ΚΙΝΗΜΑ ΣΗΜΕΡΙΝΗΣ ΙΔΕΟΛΟΓΙΑΣ (Ε. Λ.Κ.Σ.Ι.), ΦΙΛΟΝΟΜΗ ΔΗΜΕΓΕΡΣΙΑ, Πράσινο και Μωβ και Μαζί .
These nine party movements, taken together, may exceed the threshold at 2% and, with the exception of the party ΕΥ – ΚΙΝΗΣΗ, have a conservative orientation.
Thus, we already have about 12% who are looking for their party. Of them small percentage will vote for the New Democracy, maybe 1-2%. But bOa larger percentage will strive “punish” with the help of the ballot box those who made them party “homeless”.
This is especially true for young people who wanted to vote for the party of Kasidiaris, but now they can become the electorate of SYRIZA, since the party of Tsipras did not vote for the expulsion of their idols from parliament, unlike ND and PASOK.
The first “meeting” of the nationalist right and left at the ballot box level was the local elections in Attica in 2014, when Golden Dawn voters voted for René Dura of SYRIZA in order to weaken Samaras’s ND, which began persecuting the nationalists.
This was followed by amalgamation two sharply opposed political groups in the 2015 referendum, but part of the right-wing nationalists, about 30% of voters in the 2014 European elections, also voted for SYRIZA in September 2015, just to prevent the return to power of the ND, which imprisoned the leadership of the party.
They gradually moved away during the period 2015-2019 due to SYRIZA’s migration and Skopje policies, and abstained or voted for Hellenic Solution in 2019.
In other words, the nationalist right-wing vote for SYRIZA is not a “new political move” but a very real election scenario.
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