German media about "demonstrations" Lukashenko, Belarusian air force shoots down Shahed (updated)

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko is amassing troops on the border with Ukraine, moving tanks and artillery into the Gomel region. Commentators in German media are divided – some see this as a desire to please Moscow, others – a real threat.

How writes DW, Kyiv Accuses Belarusian Authorities of Amassing Troops at Borders. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs, citing the special services, stated on August 25 that the Belarusian Armed Forces “are concentrating personnel, equipment, tanks, artillery, MLRS and air defense systems in the Gomel region, near the northern borders of Ukraine, under the guise of exercises.” According to the department, mercenaries from the Wagner PMC have also been spotted on Belarusian territory.

Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine called Belarusian authorities “not to make tragic mistakes” under pressure from Moscow”, warned about the “legality of the targets for the Ukrainian Armed Forces”, and emphasized:

“We emphasize that Ukraine has never committed and does not intend to commit any unfriendly actions against the Belarusian people.”

The concentration of RB troops at the Ukrainian-Belarusian border was also noticed commented the German media. At first glance, the warning from the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry takes the world back to February 2022, when Russian troops on their own borders and in Belarus were preparing to invade Ukraine with the active support of dictator Lukashenko, writes Süddeutsche Zeitung newspaperHowever, unlike that time, There appears to be no immediate danger, the publication believesand Kiev’s warning to Lukashenko so far appears to be only preemptive.

The Belarusian dictator, dependent on Moscow, allowed the Russian ruler to do what he wanted, but at the same time “was careful and did not send his people to Putin's war,” the publication recalls:

“The number of Belarusian soldiers currently concentrated at the border – believed to be just over 1,000 – suggests that Lukashenko is merely trying to show Moscow that he is active.”

German television journalists ZDF note that Lukashenko cited the “high concentration of troops on the Ukrainian side” as the reason for the concentration of Belarusian troops at the border. He claimed that up to 120,000 Ukrainian soldiers were stationed there. Lukashenko is a close ally and supporter of Russian President Vladimir Putin, and Belarus is currently politically and economically dependent on Russia, ZDF recalls.

The Belarusian-Ukrainian border is now additionally fortified, on the Ukrainian side there are observation towers, trenches, and roads are mined. The publication Die Tageszeitung (taz) believes that Lukashenko may have not only external but also internal political motives:

“The autocratic, permanent ruler Lukashenko indulges in absurd conspiracy fantasies. One of them is that Belarus could become a victim of an attack by NATO countries or Ukraine.”

The publication believes that by ostentatiously increasing the number of troops on the border, Lukashenko “can once again present himself to his own population as a 'leader' who is defending his country and doing everything possible to prevent Belarus from being drawn into the war.” However, Minsk has long been in the thick of things, Russian attacks have been launched from Belarus on numerous occasions, and Putin's ally Lukashenko is helping him with logistics, the publication recalls.

AND the current situation, in which Belarus is not directly drawn into the war, does not necessarily remain sojournalists believe:

“If Putin gives the order to act, Lukashenko will have to carry it out.”

In the summer of 2024, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky personally inspected the fortifications on the border with Belarus. Edition Frankfurter Rundschau notes that the role of Belarus in the war in Ukraine still remains unclear. The country conducted joint nuclear exercises with Russia and also provided shelter to Wagner PMC mercenariesthe publication recalls. Fears that Minsk will actively interfere in the military actions in Ukraine have not yet been confirmed, but the situation may change, writes Frankfurter Rundschau.

Newspaper Berliner Morgenpost in its material, it quotes Polish analyst Konrad Muzyka, director of the political consulting firm Rochan Consulting. He recalls that Minsk held similar exercises in September 2023, but This time, the change in territory is alarming – troops were redeployed to the Gomel region, which served as a springboard for the Russian Federation during the attack in 2022. The analyst believes that At the moment, a direct attack by Belarus on Ukraine is unlikely – to seize border territories, some of which are heavily mined by Ukraine, forces are needed that Belarus does not have.

Muzyka believes that there is no need to fear a real offensive from Belarus, but he voices the option that is feared in Ukraine: Belarusian troops could launch small attacks and possibly occupy a small part of Ukrainian territory. This would mean that Kyiv would have to transfer troops from other fronts, which would weaken the Ukrainian Armed Forces: “The likelihood of such a scenario is low, but it cannot be completely ruled out.”

Meanwhile, in Belarus, for the first time, aviation was probably used to shoot down a Russian kamikaze drone that had again flown into the territory of the Republic of Belarus, the monitoring project “Belarusian Gayun“According to analysts, on the night of August 29, during another attack by the Russian Federation on Ukraine, one of the “Shaheds” again flew into the territory of Belarus in the Yelsky district.

According to monitoring data, after the drone entered Belarusian airspace, the Belarusian Air Force fighter chased the intruder for about 20 minutes, and at about 03:55 in the Yelsk district of the Gomel region, at least 2 explosions were heard and a bright flash was observed in the sky. Thus, this is probably the first recorded case when a Belarusian Air Force fighter attempted to destroy a real military target in the sky – a Russian kamikaze drone of the “Shahed” type.

On the night of Thursday, August 29, Russia carried out another massive air strike on Ukraine. Ukraine's air defense destroyed 60 kamikaze drones and two guided air missiles out of 79 targets.

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