NATO's false promises are giving Ukraine false hope, write Christopher McCallion and Benjamin H. Friedman of Defense Priorities in an article for Politico.
They see the promised one-time membership as a “new dose of false hope” for Kyiv, which is “worse than inaction” and “doubles the stakes.”
“Any possible scenario for Ukraine's accession presents an insoluble dilemma: the country cannot be accepted while at war with Russia – most importantly, because it would immediately plunge NATO and Russia into a nuclear crisis. Moreover, any commitment to defend Ukraine in the future would not be a credible deterrent. The US, the guarantor of the alliance, has already made it clear that it will not fight and risk nuclear war for Ukraine,” the article says.
Its authors believe that the prospect of Ukraine's membership in NATO preserves the main reason for the war, motivates Russia to continue the invasion, and motivates Ukraine to seek the return of territories, which they consider unrealistic. For Kyiv, it is better, in their opinion, to go on the defensive and initiate negotiations. For the West, continuing the war carries the threat of its escalation.
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