168 deaths per 100 births: a significant demographic deterioration in three years

Over the last 14 years, the problem of the birth-death ratio has become particularly acute. The natural balance of births and deaths in Greece has changed its sign to negative for the first time since the post-war period.

The prevalence of elderly people began in the early 1950s, increasing the death rate, while the decline in the number of children led to a decline in the birth rate. The unequal ratio of deaths and births inevitably led over time to the superiority of the former over the latter:

• Over the three years from 2011 to 2013, 38.5 thousand fewer people were born than died.
• Over the three years 2017-2019, there were 111 thousand fewer births than deaths.

However, over the three-year period 2020–2022, the imbalance increased significantly, becoming negative by almost 169 thousand (168 deaths per 100 births). The coronavirus epidemic, which caused an increase in mortality, also affected the balance. Although the indicator still remained negative.

These are some of the first findings published in the digital bulletin of the Institute for Demographic Studies (IDEM) on the topic “The deterioration of the physical balance at national and regional level (2020-2022) and its ominous prospects”.

The two authors of this article (Professors Byron Kotzamanis and Vasilis Pappas, founding members of IDEM) also state that the mortality rate will fluctuate around 130 thousand in 2023, and the birth rate per year will be on average significantly less than 82 thousand, because the The number of women of childbearing age will continue to decline.

Both researchers also report that the differences in this ratio and its deviations from the three-year average 2020-2022 (1.68 deaths per birth at the national level) are significant and vary widely across counts (from regions to regional units) and across municipalities and municipal units.

In particular, analyzing the data, they found that the South Aegean region has slightly more births than deaths, and thus differs significantly from Western Macedonia, where there are almost 2.4 deaths for every 1 birth.

Deviations from the national average increase in regional units, asOnly in five of them does the birth rate significantly exceed the death rateand in four mortality and birth rates do not differ significantlywhile, on the other hand, in Eleven regional units correspond to 2.5 or even more deaths per birth.

Director of the Institute for Population Research, Professor Byron Kotzamanis, emphasizes that the demographic indicator is alarming and will inevitably, at a certain point, undermine the country’s social and economic system.

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