Depressing figures: in highly developed countries, the birth rate has halved

Compared to 1960, the birth rate in the 38 largest industrialized countries has halved, reaching a record low.

The Financial Times reported this on June 20, citing a study published on Thursday. The average number of children per woman in the world's largest developed countries has fallen from 3.3 in 1960 to 1.5 in 2022. Fertility rates are now well below the replacement level – 2.1 children per woman, at which a country's population is considered stable without immigration – in all highly developed countries except Israel.

In 2020, mothers in the countries studied on average gave birth to their first child at almost 30 years of age or older, up from 26.5 years in 2000. The study highlights:

“This decline will change the face of societies, communities and families, and will potentially have a significant impact on economic growth and prosperity.”

The publication notes that slowing population growth is holding back economic growth. According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, people aged 65-74 spend 22% less money than those aged 45-54. Older consumers are less active in purchasing goods, and there are no more young consumers. In countries with problematic demographics, markets will no longer grow as rapidly as before. Besides:

1. According to the IMF and European Commission report on population aging to 2024, the growth of the total labor force in EU will soon be small to compensate for the decline in the working-age population, which will exacerbate labor shortage.
2. Combined with rising life expectancy, low fertility puts pressure on public finances as fewer people pay taxes needed to cover social spending.
3. Lack of students leads to increase in the number of closed schools in Europe, Japan and South Korea. In a low-fertility future, more attention will need to be paid to immigration policy, as well as policies that can help people stay healthy and be more productive.

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