ISW: will Ukraine be able to liberate its territories?

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) assessed Ukraine's ability to regain its territories occupied by the Russian Federation.

In the long term, this depends on numerous future decisions in the West, in the Kremlin and Kyiv, experts say. All discussions that view the prospects of Ukrainian victory or defeat as predetermined outcomes often ignore how all parties involved are capable of dynamically changing the course of the war in Ukraine.

Western media do not remove from the agenda the issue of discussion by the United States, or rather, by individual officials, of the idea of ​​a “border freeze” – the latest package of US military assistance to Ukraine may not be sufficient for Ukraine to return its territories.

Military analysts note that supporters of the current package have not argued that it alone would allow Ukraine to liberate all of its occupied territory, and discussion of possible end states of the war is very premature since President Joe Biden signed the bill only three days ago.

The sending process is currently underway military assistance to Ukraine, and it will take at least several weeks for it to arrive at frontline units and have a tangible impact on the battlefield. Initially, Ukrainian forces will have to use it to stabilize the front line and stop the Russian advance, in particular in the directions of Avdiivka and Chasovoy Yar. This is a task for the coming weeks.

The scale and intensity of a projected Russian offensive in the summer of 2024, likely in June, also remains unclear, and Russian military commanders may be actively assessing and revising plans for their summer offensive efforts to account for clashes with better-equipped Ukrainian forces.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces will have to defend against the offensive and prevent Russian forces from making significant operational progress during the summer months before they can challenge the initiative with a counteroffensive later in late 2024 or early 2025.

Ukrainian forces must also deal with ongoing problems: training new personnel, equipping new units and rebuilding old units. The exact timing of these efforts, which will likely play a significant role in determining the timetable for Ukraine's future counteroffensive operations, remains unclear. ISW estimatessufficient and consistent Western assistance will be critical to future Ukrainian counteroffensive efforts, although the U.S. and West will likely need to respond as Ukrainian military commanders determine the scope and focus of such operations and communicate Ukraine's needs to Western partners in the weeks and months ahead of future ones. counter-offensive operations.

It is worth noting, according to analysts, that in recent days the number of public meetings between officials from the Russian Federation, Belarus, China, Iran and North Korea has sharply increased. At least 10 high-level bilateral meetings took place between April 22 and 26, underscoring the deepening multilateral partnership these states are building to counter the West. Chinese officials said NATO was responsible for Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine amid meetings between Chinese officials and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on April 26.

Ukraine's Western partners continue to provide Ukraine with immediate and long-term military assistance, particularly in the area of ​​air defense. The Ukrainian military, meanwhile, has withdrawn US-supplied M1A1 Abrams tanks from the front line – partly due to the widespread threat of Russian drones and other attacks, media reports say. However, the 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade called the Associated Press information that the Defense Forces withdrew American Abrams tanks provided to Ukraine from the front line as fake because of the threat attacks Russian drones. The brigade published a screenshot of the news marked “Fake” with a link to the Associated Press material and the message:

“Tanks perform well on the battlefield, and we are definitely not going to hide from the enemy what usually forces him to hide. Moreover, leave our infantry without such powerful fire support. But for what purpose, where and what are the Armed Forces transferring? Ukraine is not something that we will comment on publicly. We ask you to trust only verified information and contact the press service for official comments before publishing materials.”

Analysts note that Russian authorities continue to expand the definition of persecuted anti-war sentiment in order to portray Russians who oppose the war in Ukraine as opposing Russia itself.

Russian forces have recently carried out a confirmed advance northwest of Avdiivka, and Ukrainian forces have carried out a confirmed advance on the eastern (left) bank of the Kherson region, although this advance is likely not recent.

The Tatar-Bashkir service of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty “Idel Realii” reported on April 26 that a new volunteer motorized rifle battalion “Batyr” is being formed in the Samara region.

The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) released a joint statement on behalf of 45 member states saying that Russia is arbitrarily detaining thousands of Ukrainian civilians in occupied Ukraine and subjecting them to cruel, inhuman or degrading treatment, it said. end of the ISW report.

Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War also note that Russian troops are likely to gain significant tactical advantages in the coming weeks while Ukraine awaits security assistance from the United States, but are unlikely to be able to defeat Ukrainian defenses.

Ukraine will likely stabilize its front line in the coming months and will be able to launch limited counteroffensive operations in late 2024 or early 2025.

Politico edition reportedthat Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson in December 2023 that Ukrainian troops could “hold out” until March or April 2024 without additional U.S. security assistance, a period that Ukrainian troops are currently going through without military arrivals assistance from the United States.

The situation at the front can be viewed at interactive mapwhich ISW updates daily.

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