The US intelligence documents, which according to international media were stolen by unknown persons and made public, contain hypothetical scenarios for the development of the conflict in Ukraine, writes the New York Times. Including options in the event of the death of Putin and Zelensky.
Available to The New York Times A classified intelligence document (one previously leaked online) sheds light on what contingencies are being considered a year after the conflict in Ukraine began.
An analysis by the US Department of Defense Intelligence Agency describes four “unpredictable” scenarios and their possible impact on the course of the conflict in Ukraine. Among them are the deaths of presidents Vladimir Putin and Vladimir Zelensky, the change of command of the Russian armed forces, and Ukraine’s attack on the Kremlin.
The document argues that the conflict is likely to remain protracted. At the same time, it is considered what each of the “unforeseen” scenarios can lead to – further escalation, cessation of hostilities through negotiations, or will not have a significant impact on the course of the conflict.
Analysis of options is a fairly typical product of the intelligence services. It is designed to help the military, politicians and legislators evaluate the possibilities and likely outcomes of large-scale events. The document is marked RELIDO, which indicates that the decision to disclose information (including to foreign partners) is made by certain high-ranking officials. It is dated 24 February and is marked with a stamp indicating that the analysis was carried out one year after the outbreak of hostilities.
In one hypothetical scenario, Ukraine strikes at the Kremlin. This can lead to a range of potential consequences. Thus, this event is fraught with escalation if Putin, in response to public protests, deploys a full-scale military mobilization and considers the use of tactical nuclear weapons. Alternatively, public fears will force him to negotiate a settlement.
A possible Ukrainian strike on Moscow is of particular concern to the Biden administration, as it is fraught with a sharp escalation from Russia. The threat of such an attack from Ukraine is one reason why the US is reluctant to provide Kyiv with long-range missiles. Sometimes intelligence agencies estimate the most likely outcome of a certain event, but in this document they acted differently. Various scenarios are described without assessing their likelihood.
US officials did not confirm the authenticity of the document, but did not deny it either. The document is similar to others previously issued by Joint Pentagon Headquarters, whose authenticity has been confirmed by officials. At the same time, US officials warned that the “leaked” documents are largely outdated and do not always reflect the current assessments of intelligence agencies.
Another top-secret document, obtained by The New York Times, provides details of negotiations on Russian fuel prices in Africa. According to the February 17 document, the Malian authorities expressed dissatisfaction with fuel prices and continued negotiations with the Russian Ministry of Energy and representatives of the African Political Science organization associated with the Wagner PMC. The request for price cuts comes at a time when the importance of the African fuel market for Russia is growing against the backdrop of a Western-imposed price ceiling and reduced revenues due to the European Union’s ban on the import of Russian oil products.
Athens News Editorial with some doubt to the reality of the data issued in this sink. The Greek (and not only) media have already dubbed this information leak as “UkraLeaks”, by analogy with another equally large-scale data leak “WikiLeaks”.
Early publications by WikiLeaks included documents such as the Afghan war spending and a report on corruption in Kenya. In April 2010, WikiLeaks released footage taken during the Baghdad airstrike on July 12, 2007, in which Reuters journalists, among others, were killed by an AH-64 Apache helicopter. This video is known as Collateral Murder. In July of that year, WikiLeaks published the Afghan War Diaries, a collection of over 76,900 previously unpublished documents about the Afghan war. In October 2010, the organization, in collaboration with major publications, released almost 400,000 documents under the title “Iraq dossier”. In April 2011, WikiLeaks released 779 classified files concerning prisoners held at the Guantanamo detention camp.
Founder of WikiLeaks Julian Assange was arrested on trumped-up charges of alleged rape and is currently imprisoned in Britain, awaiting deportation to the United States, where he faces a life sentence.
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