ISW: Ugledar is unlikely to radically change the course of Russian operations in the Donetsk region

Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War argue that the capture of Vugledar will not radically change the course of offensive operations in the west of the Donetsk region, since the city is not a particularly important logistics hub:

“Russian forces likely captured Ugledar as of October 1 after Ukrainian forces were reported to be withdrawing from the town, although it is unclear whether Russian forces will be able to quickly advance beyond Ugledar in the near future.”

Geolocation videos from September 30 and October 1 show Russian troops planting Russian flags in different parts of Ugledar. On October 1, the Ukrainian side reported that part of the Ukrainian group carried out a planned departure from Ugledarto avoid encirclement, and Russian bloggers claim that Ukrainian troops began withdrawing from Ugledar at the end of September 30. Two days ago:

Ukrainian units withdrew from Ugledar, Donetsk region, in order to preserve personnel, military equipment and take up a position for further battles, reported operational-strategic group of troops “Khortitsa”. The Russian army suffered numerous losses due to long battles, but did not give up trying to capture the city. The occupiers sent reserves to Vuhledar in order to exhaust the defenses of units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces with flank attacks. As a result, there was a threat of encirclement of the city. The message notes:

“The high command has granted permission to carry out a maneuver to withdraw units from Ugledar in order to preserve personnel and military equipment, and occupy a position for further actions.”

In ISW ​​Review notedthat the capture of Vugledar by Russian troops came after a series of costly and unsuccessful Russian assaults near this settlement over the past two and a half years. Experts remind: Russia carried out at least two major offensive attempts to capture Ugledar in October-November 2022 and January-February 2023, both of which resulted in heavy losses of personnel and military equipment. Previous defeats of the Russian Federation around Vugledar, in particular, led to the depletion of the 155th Marine Infantry Brigade (Pacific Fleet, Russian Navy).

Some sources in the Russian Federation express doubts that Russian troops will be able to quickly advance and achieve operationally significant breakthroughs immediately after the capture of Ugledar.

Russian bloggers noted that they do not expect the front line to collapse once Ugledar is captured, citing Ukrainian defensive positions to the northeast of it and the need for Russian forces to completely clear Ugledar to make it a viable position from which they can launch future assaults:

“According to preliminary ISW assessments, Russia's capture of Ugledar is unlikely to radically change the course of offensive operations in the western Donetsk region, mainly because Ugledar is not a particularly important logistics hub, and also because Russian troops controlled most of the main roads leading to Ugledar. even before October 1, which means that Russian troops already had the opportunity to, to a certain extent, block Ukrainian logistics on this section of the front.”

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