Scientists estimate that the coming September will be warmer than usual. The probability that the average temperature will be below normal is only 11%.
According to long-term forecasts published in August, south-eastern Europe (including Greece) is expected to experience warmer-than-normal weather in September. As shown in the graph below, 89% of available scenarios will show that the average September temperature will be above normal for the season (base period 1993-2016).
More precisely, the most likely scenarios are deviations of the order of 1–2°C (38%) and 0–1°C (31%), while the probability of a deviation of the average temperature by more than 2°C is about 19%. In addition, there is an 11% probability that the average temperature will be below normal. This forecast is based on a total of 350 possible scenarios from the following forecast centres, provided by the Copernicus Climate Change Service of the European Commission:
- ECMW(Europe)
- UKMO (UK)
- Meteo-France (France)
- JMA (Japan)
- NCEP (USA)
- DWD (Germany)
- CMCC (Italy).
It is emphasized that long-term forecasts are characterized by great uncertainty and are aimed at assessing the tendency of monthly and seasonal evolution of average weather conditions. Temperature fluctuations on a daily and local basis, due to the influence of all types of weather systems, can differ significantly from average temperature fluctuations over a period of one or more months over a larger area.
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