Consequences of the missile strike on Ukraine, Orban's mission, Arestovich on the war party

The destroyed building of the Ohmatdet Children's Hospital

Russia launched a massive missile strike on Ukraine this morning. The most talked about target of the attack was the Okhmatdet hospital in Kyiv, where a missile destroyed one of the buildings with a direct hit. No children were killed, but many were injured.

Russia denies the hospital strike and blames it on a Ukrainian air defense missile. Kyiv says Moscow deliberately targeted Okhmatdet with an Kh-101 cruise missile. Russia denies the charge and says it was an air defense missile.

In total, 36 people died and 140 were injured in the missile attack in Ukraine. Of these, 20 people died in Kyiv and 11 in Krivoy Rog, where the Northern Mining and Processing Plant was hit.

What does this blow indicate and how will it affect the further course of the war?

Firstly, the strike itself was directed at Kyiv, which had not seen such a number of attacks for a long time. The strike was carried out in areas where the Artem and Antonov factories, which are related to the military-industrial complex, are located. It was not officially reported whether these enterprises were hit or not. But the fact that the most powerful air defense in Ukraine – Kiev's – was “pierced” today by a relatively small number of missiles (about 30) is quite indicative.

That is, despite the deliveries of Western systems, which have been going on for more than a year, they are still not enough to reliably cover even the capital (although there is a version that Some of the air defense systems have been redeployed from near Kyiv to protect airfields where F-16 aircraft are expected to arrivebut it has no confirmation). This means that the protection of other objects outside of Kyiv raises even more questions.

For example, non-nuclear energy facilities in Ukraine. If Moscow intensifies strikes against them before the cold weather sets in, the winter risks becoming catastrophic for many Ukrainians. Western media outlets are already openly warning about this. They fear a winter increase in the flow of refugees from Ukraine, which will raise the cost of this war for the West (in the Financial Times yesterday an article was publishedwhere it is proposed in this regard to take the path of de-escalation and find “delicate approaches” to Putin).

What does massive strike mean

The second question is how today's attack will affect the processes that are happening around Ukraine in general. Let us recall that the NATO summit in Washington starts tomorrow.

Also, last week started “Orban's mission” – the Hungarian Prime Minister visited Kyiv, Moscow and Beijing. No one knows for sure what Orban's goals are. He himself says that he is consulting with the leaders of these countries and trying to find some solution acceptable to everyone. At the same time, the Hungarian Prime Minister may well be fulfilling a more serious mission – for example, being a mediator in the secret negotiations. Moreover, he may also represent the position of his ideological ally Trump, with whom he met in March (and with his son quite recently, in June).

Trump, as we know, has his own plan to end the war in Ukraine, which he promised to implement even before his inauguration – if he wins the election. Orban said that he knew this plan and praised it. Therefore, the Hungarian prime minister is quite suitable for the role of the person who could implement it. “shuttle diplomacy” for promotion “Trump's plan”.

Orban has been received in all the capitals that are relevant to the issue. In addition, Hungary will hold the presidency of the European Union until the end of the year, which gives Orban even more significant status. Although the leaders EU and they constantly emphasize that Orban makes his trips not on behalf of all of Europe, but only on behalf of his country.

In addition, today it became known that after consultations with Xi Jinping on Ukraine, the Hungarian Prime Minister will travel to the United States. Where he will possibly meet with Trump. Again, it is unknown what Orban actually discusses during his trips. He himself publicly reveals little. For example, that he convinces Ukraine and Russia to agree to a ceasefire before the talks begin.

“I asked the heads of both states and governments a question: is it possible to agree on a time-limited ceasefire that will speed up peace talks? And then move on from the ceasefire. Because now everyone thinks the opposite. First conclude a peace agreement, and then lower the weapons. Both are not sure. Both the Ukrainians and the Russians answered the same thing, as you did: that a ceasefire is in the interests of the enemy, since during this time he will be able to regroup and prepare to continue the war,” – Orban said in an interview with Bild.

According to him, Putin is confident of his victory

“[У Путина] “It's simple: look at the facts, energy sources, population. Putin can't lose, it's very logical. If you look at the soldiers, weapons and technologies that are used in the war, then defeating Russia is a difficult thought. The probability of whether it is possible to defeat Russia at all is impossible to calculate,” – Orban said.

Wherein Zelensky made it clear today that the Hungarian Prime Minister cannot be a mediator in the settlement. This role, according to him, could be played by the United States, China or the European Union.

The current massive attack is obviously unlikely to help Orban, as well as other representatives of the conditional “peace parties” in their mission. The strike itself was certainly demonstrative. It was carried out after 10 a.m., when there were many people on the streets. Usually, the Russian Federation carries out such strikes at night. The strike was carried out before the NATO summit, where, according to forecasts, Ukraine will again not be told anything specific about joining the alliance.

Probably with this blow the Kremlin demonstrated that it is confident in its strength and is not afraid of any “responses” neither from Ukraine nor from NATO, and therefore – “Agree to our terms for ending the war right now, otherwise it will be even worse later.”

There were many statements in Ukraine today that now, after the attack on the children's hospital, there can definitely be no talk of any negotiations with Russia and now there is only war until victory. Dissonance, as usual, the words of Alexey Arestovich were heard: “

– The terrible tragedy of the attack on children (and several more attacks with fatalities in Kyiv and other cities of Ukraine) gave the “war party” a reason to once again shout that “…there are no negotiations with cannibals”, and “…the peace party are traitors”.

I particularly noticed how the gentlemen officers (the talking heads) immediately rushed to take revenge on Maryana Bezuglya for a not entirely successful post about the work of the air defense over Kiev, accusing her (well, of course) “…of working for the enemy.” What proposals do we hear from the “war party” and the grief-stricken people emotionally caught by it?

1. “War to the bitter end.”

What is meant by “the end”? Destruction of the Russian Federation, Ukrainian flag over the Kremlin? By what means are you going to achieve it if you were unable to hold Rabotino and Avdiivka?

2. “The world will wake up and finally…”

The world has seen (…and done) worse tragedies. Mosul, Gaza, Hiroshima, Dresden, Coventry, Mariupol. The emotions of the world will last for three days, but politics will not change for a minute. This policy will not transfer to Ukraine the amount of funds that would allow it to meet requirement number one. And even if it were (let's imagine this for a minute), our level of organization would not allow us to use it effectively. I wish all the F-16s in the world could come here.

The level of organization is a direct consequence of the country's software – ideology. Those who behave like “UNR” end up like “UNR”. The ideology of the “UNR” will never provide the necessary level for organizing the largest European and very diverse country – Ukraine, this ideology is too narrow. We don't need a “peace party”. We need a sobriety party.

“War to the bitter end” means hundreds more dead children, and your “world” will do nothing about it. And we won’t do it – there are no funds and not enough organization. Our only chance is to stop the war and reboot the state and society, starting with replacing the software from a narrow project to a broad one and moving from the trajectory of emotions to the trajectory of common sense.

If we don't do this, these two things – ending the war and mentality reboot – The next war, around 2028-30, will finish us off completely. And before that, we will eventually give in and get peace for a while, and on much worse terms than now, only with tens of thousands more dead and a completely destroyed economy.

The country has every chance, by continuing its current policy, of ending up in the 17th century, under the torch. Today, in the heat of the moment, we can still shout about “…war to the bitter end,” but tomorrow we need to answer ourselves honestly – what is this “end”? And who needs it? Do we want to be Afghanistan for Russia or Switzerland for ourselves? There are few prospects for getting through this winter without a severe social and economic crisis. And the Russian Federation has significantly more opportunities to finish off our energy sector.

The “war party”, when it has finished shouting and buried another hundred thousand dead, will also have something to do – reform and sharply strengthen the Defense Forces. Because neutrality costs more and requires more effort than participation in any military bloc. And the best guarantee of neutrality and non-aggression is a high-quality system of national defense.

Only the “war party”, in order to successfully solve this problem, will first need to sober up and put their feet on solid ground. Otherwise, in the current state of irrepressible pathos, they will set us up.

Realism. Sober calculation. Grounding. Fixing losses and rebooting. Build relationships with everyone, but rely only on yourself. Not on your own desires and illusions, not on the kind uncle across the seas who (of course!) will understand and pity you, but on yourself“– Arestovich wrote on his Telegram channel.

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